A Study On Direct And Spillover Effects Of Economies Agglomeration On Farmer’s Income Growth And Rural Poverty Alleviation

From the great discoveries of geography to the industrial revolution, from "the mainstream of immigrant" to "the world is flat", these phenomena illustrate that the history of human society is a struggle undertaken by against the "tyranny of distance", as well as a struggle undertaken by pursuing the "agglomeration benefit".Traditional studies agree that economies agglomeration boosts the growth of wages or labor productivity. However, the effect of economies agglomeration on farmers’income is uncertain, because the economies agglomeration may have a positive effect on farmers’non-farm wages due to "economies of scale", as well as a negative effect on agricultural income of farmers due to the outflow of the agricultural production resources caused by "The siphon effect". Therefore, the impact of economies agglomeration on the growth of farmers’total income remains an outstanding issue, which still awaits study. What is more, with the improving transportation conditions and the gradual elimination of the institutional barriers, connections of each area are becoming increasingly close and convenient. Thus, we should consider the "spatial spillover effect" of economies agglomeration, because we may underestimate the effect if only considering the impact of local economies agglomeration on farmers’income. Then, will the economies agglomeration really benefit the farmers and rural poverty alleviation?First, using the panel data of69counties and1215townships in Zhejiang Province, from the macro-level, the dissertation studies on the direct and spillover effect of economic agglomeration on farmer’s income. The result is that economic density which measures the degree of economies agglomeration has a positive significant direct effect on farmer’s income. Economic density from the other area combining the economic distance shows a positive significant spatial spillover effect on farmers’ income. The total effect of economic density is also positive and significant. Compared to the spatial Durbin model, the model without considering the spatial spillover effect overestimates the direct effect of economic density on local farmers’income; while underestimates the total effect. Under the control of the economic density, the longer economic distance is, the less farmers’income will be.Second, the economies agglomeration has an effect on farmers’income through the mechanism of externalities. Using the data of township-level and economic census in Zhejiang Province, from the enterprises perspective, the dissertation studies on the direct and spillover effect of externalities on farmers’ income. The result is that pecuniary externalities have a positive significant direct and spillover effect on farmers’income. Technological externalities have a positive significant direct and negative spillover effect on farmers’income. In consideration of the industrial effect, the dissertation divides technology externalities into MAR externalities and Jacobs externalities, the result shows that MAR externalities and Jacobs externalities have a positive significant direct and negative spillover effect on farmers’income.Third, industrial cluster is a classic case of economies agglomeration. Using the data of county-level and economic census in Zhejiang Province, from the county-level perspective, the dissertation studies on the direct and spillover effect of industrial clusters on farmers’ income. The result is that the number of industrial clusters has a positive direct and spillover effect on farmers’income,but the spillover effect is not significant. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index has a positive direct and spillover effect on farmer’s income, but the direct effect is not significant. EG-index has a positive significant direct and spillover effect on farmers’income. Fourth, based on the data of economic census and rural fixed observations Point in Zhejiang Province, from the farmers’perspective, the dissertation studies on the direct and spillover effect of industrial clusters on farmers’income and rural poverty alleviation. The result is that the number of industrial clusters has a positive direct and spillover effect on farmers’income, and a negative effect on poverty incident, namely the farmers who live in the county with more industrial clusters, will be less likely to become poor. The number of industrial clusters in other area has a positive direct and spillover effect on farmers’income, and a negative effect on poverty incident. By dividing farmers into poverty and non-poverty group, the study finds that, for the poverty group, the number of industrial clusters has a positive direct and spillover effect on farmers’ income. For the non-poverty group, the number of local industrial clusters has a positive direct effect on farmers’income, but the number of industrial clusters in other area doesn’t have any effect on farmers’income, or may even has a negative direct effect on farmers’income as a result of competition from industrial clusters in other area towards the local ones. By specifying the industries, the study discovers that the labor-intensive industrial clusters, such as textiles, machinery parts manufacturing and processing, and paper industries, have a positive effect on farmers’income.Overall, the dissertation may contribute to existing studies from the following aspects:First, based on Duranton and Puga, March micro-theories and combing the theoretical mechanism of economies agglomeration towards farmers’income, the dissertation empirically analyzes the direct and spillover effect of economic density on farmers’income under the Spatial Durbin Model. Second, under the theoretical framework of pecuniary externalities and technological externalities as well as MAR externalities and Jacobs externalities, the dissertation studies on the effect of externalities from various industrial and geographical dimensions on farmers’ income. Third, under the theoretical framework of the World Bank, the dissertation studies the direct and spillover effect of the number and the development of industrial clusters on farmer’s income and rural poverty alleviation.