Research On Early Warning Of Egg Market Risk In China

The laying hens industry is an important part of animal husbandry in China.It plays an important role in satisfying the consumption demand of urban and rural residents,promoting farmers' income,driving rural labor force employment and growing rural economy,as well as advancing the development of related industries and other sides.However,in the recent years,with the socio-economic transformation,the internal and external factors that have restricted the development of laying hens industry are becoming more and more prominent.The breaking out of market and disease risk frequently,the shortage of feed grain,the transfer of rural labor force,the increasing pressure of environmental protection,the rising cost of feeding,the difficulty of land and capital approval and other issues become more and more prominent.Especially by the impact of various factors,the market risk becomes more complex.On the one hand,it affects the benefits of egg producers;on the other hand,it affects the interests of egg consumers,so it is worth to study in depth.The purpose of this paper is to construct the early warning model of egg market risk to prejudge the risk of egg market,and to provide decision support for stabilizing laying hens production and promoting the balance of egg market supply and demand.In this paper,firstly,the characteristics and manifestation forms of egg market risk were analyzed,and periodicity of egg price fluctuation was analyzed by the method of seasonal adjustment and BP filter.Secondly,the vector autoregressive model was used to study the dynamic relationship between egg price and production.Logit model was used to study the market risk prejudgment and avoidance ability of farmer and its influencing factors.Thirdly,breaking through the previous model which predict the price by price data,based on the comprehensive analysis of factors such as supply,demand,production cost,epidemic environment and macroeconomic environment and so on which affected the fluctuation of egg price,the time-dependent nature of the warning indicator was determined by using the method of time difference correlation analysis,and the early warning index system was established.Meanwhile by using risk early warning theory,the early warning model of egg market risk prosperity index and the support vector regression were established.Finally,according to the above researches,the countermeasures were proposed to improve the early warning system of egg market risk and enhance the risk aversion ability of farmers.These conclusions were found:(1)The main manifestation forms of egg market risk are the risk of price fluctuation and farmers' income.Egg price fluctuation presents obvious seasonal and cyclical;seasonal circulation rule is 1 year,the periodic circulation rule is about 35 months which is about 2 feeding cycle of laying hens,the farmers' income cost profit rate circulation rule is 3 ~ 4 years.(2)There are dynamic relationships among egg price,the laying hens,and egg production,such as Granger Causality,changes of impulse response and variance contribution rate at different times.These changes coincides with the biology rule of beginning laying time and and laying period.(3)On the whole,farmers' ability of prejudging and avoidance on market risk are weak.The characteristics of farmers' experience,personal,production,sales,income,training,and regional factors have different effects on farmers' ability of prejudging and avoidance about market risk.(4)Five coincident indexes,thirteen leading indexes and four lag indexes were identified,and the early warning index system of egg market was established.(5)The early warning model of egg market prosperity index can predict the trend of egg prices year-on-year growth rate about 10 th month and prejudge the different level of warning instance in the future.(6)The early warning model of support vector regression can predict the trend of egg price year-on-year growth rate about 5th to 6th months and prejudge the different level of warning instance in the future.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations were proposed: Firstly,improve the government public information service platform,and announcing the service information of laying hens industry-related in time.Secondly,do real statistical monitoring works,study egg market risk law in depth,and grasp the development trend of layers industry.Thirdly,perfect the egg market risk early warning system to improve the accuracy and practicality of early warning.Fourthly,accelerate the development process of large-scale laying hens breeding and guide residents to consume rationally so that can ease the fluctuations of laying hens production and egg consumption.Fifthly,improve farmers' organizational degree to enhance their ability of market risk aversion.Sixthly,formulate support policies of poultry industry and establish long-term mechanism to stabilize the development of poultry.