Study On Outflow Of Population And Its Effects In Heilongjiang Province

Since the reform and opening up,the phenomenon of free migration of population in China has been is frequent,and the scale of population migration has increased.Population migration and mobility have different impacts on the age structure,gender structure,human capital composition,investment and consumption structure,social resource allocation of provincial population,and play an important role in regional economic and social development.Heilongjiang Province is located in the northeastern part of the motherland.As a border province,the population growth is slow and the fertility rate has remained very low for a long time.According to the data of the Sixth Population Census in 2010,the total fertility rate of Heilongjiang Province is less than 1.The natural growth rate began to show a negative value in 2015.In addition,the average number of ideal children in Heilongjiang Province is the lowest in the three fertility wishes surveys organized by the National Health Planning Commission in recent years.When fertility and mortality are relatively stable,population migration has an important impact on regional development.According to the data of the sixth census,the inter-provincial migrants moved in and moved out in Heilongjiang Province are 2.554 million and 0.506 million respectively,and the migration rate and the immigration rate are 66.7 and 13.2 respectively,which are typical net migration provinces.From the point of view of regional sustainable development,large-scale and sustained population outflow will inevitably lead to the loss of population and human capital in the outflow areas,which will bring a series of negative effects to the outflow areas,and is not conducive to the coordinated economic and social development and sustainable development of the outflow areas.Heilongjiang Province is an important base of heavy industry and grain production in China in history.Influenced by geographical location,natural and local conditions,as well as comprehensive factors such as the transition from planned economy to social economy,the exhaustion of resource-based cities,the concept of development and system design,the economic development of Heilongjiang Province has been relatively slow in recent years.In 2015 and 2016,the economic growth rate is only 5.7% and 6.1%,which is the third lowest in our country.Therefore,it is urgent to study the population outflow and its impact on the outflow areas in Heilongjiang Province.After consulting the relevant research results and materials at home and abroad extensively,using the dynamic monitoring data of the national floating population in 2015 of the former National Health Planning Commission,the data of the fifth and sixth national census,the data of the statistical yearbook of China in the relevant years,the data of the national sampling survey of 1% of the population in 2015 and the data of the statistical yearbook of Heilongjiang Province,the study focuses on the situation and the characteristics of the outflow population in Heilongjiang Province.Quantitative analysis methods such as multiple regression model,classified logistic regression model and time series model are used to study the influencing factors of outflow population in Heilongjiang Province,the outflow population's willingness to live in cities where they live and its influencing factors and the employment situation and income difference of outflow population.The impact of population outflow on the economic and social development of the outflow areas in Heilongjiang Province is discussed.The relationship,interaction and interaction between population outflow and economic and social development in Heilongjiang Province are analyzed and mastered.In order to realize General Secretary Xi Jinping's proposal of "encouraging and guiding talents to flow to remote and poverty-stricken areas,frontier minority areas,old revolutionary areas and grass-roots areas,we should strive to form a front-line movement of talents that everyone aspires to,strives to,can and develops.The good situation of talents will make all kinds of talentscreative vigor burst out and the wisdom and knowledge flow in full.It will provide powerful countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the rational and orderly flow of population,and further provide theoretical support and empirical examples for solving similar problems nationwide.The basic framework of this research has eight chapters,each of which is arranged as follows:Chapter 1 is introduction.This paper briefly introduces the background,main research directions,research significance,specific research methods and the overall structure of the paper.Chapter 2 is the relevant concepts and theoretical basis.This paper expounds and defines the concepts of population migration,economic development and social integration.It reviews the theories,viewpoints and concepts of related studies at home and abroad,providing theoretical basis and research ideas for further research.It includes defining the basic concepts of population migration,social integration and economic growth,and elaborating and analyzing the theories of population migration,regional economic development and social integration.Chapter 3 is the analysis of population outflow and its typical characteristics in Heilongjiang Province.By descriptive and comparative analysis,the characteristics of population outflow in Heilongjiang Province are summarized and described,including demographic characteristics,education quality of outflow populationand residence time in outflow area and quality of life.Chapter 4 is the analysis of influencing factors of population outflow in Heilongjiang Province.This paper makes an empirical study on different periods and different flow ranges of Heilongjiang Province.Firstly,we use the binary regression model to analyze the factors affecting population outflow from macroeconomic factors.Then we use the gravity model of population migration to further explore the impact of population size and migration distance on population outflow.Finally,we use the Logistic regression model to analyze the factors affecting population outflow from micro-individual characteristics.Then we can understand and grasp the differences between Heilongjiang Province and other provinces in the country,and try to find out and identify a series of reasons that affect the population outflow of Heilongjiang Province,so as to provide support for further in-depth research.Chapter 5 makes a quantitative analysis of the willingness of the outflow population in Heilongjiang Province to settle in the inflow area and the main influencing factors of this willingness.Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the floating population in China in 2015,this chapter obtains the samples of the cross-provincial outflow population in Heilongjiang Province by screening and sorting out.Firstly,according to the results of the survey,this chapter makes a general analysis of the residents' willingness of the cross-provincial outflow population in the inflow areas in Heilongjiang Province.Then,it makes a preliminary induction and classification according to the differences of the relevant demographic characteristics,and further studies the cross-provincial The differences of residents' willingness of different groups under different population classifications.Finally,using Logistic regression model,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of population attributes,economy,society,region and other factors on the residents' willingness of Heilongjiang's cross-provincial outflow population.Chapter 6 is the analysis of employment characteristics,wage income and influencing factors of outflow population in Heilongjiang Province.Firstly,the paper uses multiple logistic regression models to explore the basic employment characteristics and influencing factors of the outflow population from different provinces,and then makes a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the various factors affecting the wage income of the outflow population.Chapter 7 is about the impact of labor outflow on the economy of the outflow areas in Heilongjiang Province.Using the data of national censuses,sample surveys,national statistical yearbooks,Heilongjiang statistical yearbooks and related literature published by the National Bureau of Statistics,using the transformed Cobb-Douglas production function,the GDP is selected as dependent variable,and the stock of material capital,the number of employees and the average education level of employees are selected as SELF-VARYING variables.Quantity,using the data from 1978 to 2016,a multiple linear regression model is established to study the impact of labor input and labor quality on economic growth.Chapter 8 discusses the main points of the study and draws a conclusion for discussion and suggestions.In view of the situation of population outflow and its impact in Heilongjiang Province,some suggestions are put forward,such as promoting population stability,attracting talents to stay in and adjusting fertility policy appropriately.