Research On Multi-agent Cooperation In The Development Of Highspeed Railway Express Freight

With the rapid development of new infrastructure construction such as high-speed railway(HSR),the integration of HSR transportation and modern logistics industry is accelerating.In order to meet the requirements of modern logistics industry modes,China Railway Highs-peed Express(CRHE),a kind of "station-to-station" transportation service,came into being.However,as the CRHE gradually presents the development trend of scale,organization and network,the problem of cooperation between various subjects also gradually emerges with the closer cooperation relationship,which restricts the development process of high-speed railway express to a certain extent.However,existing research mainly focus on the railway transport enterprise income distribution of cooperation with related parties,cooperation mode,the cooperation stability points of qualitative analysis,as well as to the existing cooperation success or failure case seeking theory to explain,but the general theory combined with empirical prediction analysis,also did not put this co-operation in the entire HSR in the express industry chain are systematically discussed.To fill the gap,based on the theoretical analysis of the cooperation among various subjects in the HSR express industry chain by comprehensively applying the transportation demand matching theory,organization dependence theory and game theory,this paper carries out the research by combining the methods of econometric model,simulation,and case analysis.By building with high iron professional intermediary organization,the railway transportation company of express industry chain as the core of the multi-agent cooperation analysis framework,and based on the represented by China railway express railway professional transportation company in the industry chain upstream,midstream,downstream extension of cooperation with the main body in the process of the reality of the contradiction,put forward the following research questions:First,during downstream period,how to make PRTC effectively allocate HSR capacity by reasonably forecasting demand of express delivery enterprises for HSR capacity? Second,during middle-stream period,how to ensure the continuous and stable cooperation between the railway bureaus and PRTC? Third,during upstream period,what kind of cooperation mode can promote the completion and operation of the base?In order to solve the above problems,this paper has done the following work and reached the corresponding conclusions:(1)Based on the analysis of the cooperative relationship between various subjects in the development process of HSR express and the research of existing scholars,it is found that the matching of supply and demand of HSR capacity between CRHE and express delivery enterprises,the continuous and stable cooperation with railway bureaus in trunk transportation,and the fairness and reasonableness of cooperative investment base projects with local governments and other entities,are important prerequisites for realizing the development of HSR express.(2)The economic scale of the city and the increase in the number of high-speed trains have a significant positive effect on the demand for HSR capacity of express delivery enterprises,while the increase in the change of urban HSR passengers,the negative;Under the assumption mentioned above,the demand for urban express delivery in Beijing-Shanghai transport corridor is increasing.By speeding up the construction of parallel lines and increasing the income of single trains,the railway system can improve the matching level of transport capacity supply and demand,promote the large-scale development of high-speed express,and play a supporting role for the supply of goods of logistics base.(3)The income between PRTC and railway bureaus cooperation will only be greatly increased after being raised to a certain level,to enhance the cooperation willingness and achieve stable cooperation;the income difference smaller,the cooperation more stable;the change of distribution ratio of specific assets of HSR express has a significant impact on the stability of cooperation.The improvement of cooperation stability can promote the organizational development of CRHE,and play a supporting role for the improvement of the matching level of supply and demand of high-speed rail transportation capacity.(4)When the local government has abundant funds,PRTC is more suitable as a partner in the base project construction stage.Each investment entity can adopt "specific bond + front TOT" mode,which refers to the local government first issues specific bonds for financing,and after the base project is moderately divided,it will jointly invest with CRHE to build the core operation area by preferential policies such as land allocation,and independently invest in the logistics spillover area.At the same time,the social capital can be encouraged to involve in the construction stage,to promote the smooth connection of the project.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper tries puts forward the cooperation mode of "specific bond+ front TOT",which makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional debt financing mode and public-private partnership mode,and promotes the complementary advantages of stateowned capital and social capital,which emphasize construction over operation,and provide a new solution to the problem of multi-player cooperative investment in infrastructure projects.(2)This paper reveals the dynamic cooperation process and the influence mechanism of cooperation stability between CRHE and railway bureaus.The distribution ratio of specific assets is brought into the Evolutionary Game mode,which verifies that the theoretical proposition that symmetric dependence is more stable than asymmetric dependence also applies to the cooperation among railway enterprises.(3)This paper expanded the Matching Theory of Supply and Demand,which provides an analytical framework for solving the problem of mismatch between supply and demand of HSR capacity.The introduction of forecasting model both strengthen the explanatory power of Bilateral Matching Theory in the field of transportation economy and the forecasting ability of empirical model.