| Forestry is an important industry related to national economy and people's livelihood.China's forestry development is in the key period of structural upgrading and transformation adjustment.How to improve the quality and efficiency is an important issue in the development of forestry industry.Industrial agglomeration is a typical geographical feature of China's forestry development.As an important form of industrial development organization,it has an important institutional influence on the sustainable,efficient and balanced development of China's forestry industry.This paper focuses on the geographical agglomeration of forestry industry in China,analyzes its characteristics and mechanism,and studies the influence of forestry industrial agglomeration on its economic growth and quality,so as to provide decision-making basis for optimizing regional forestry industrial policy making and promoting the adjustment and optimization of forestry industrial structure.By sorting out the theories of industrial agglomeration and economic growth,this paper clarifies the theoretical basis of the study.Combining with the analysis of the study status quo of forestry industrial agglomeration and related fields,this paper determines the study idea,study route and its framework.There is an integrated use of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,static analysis and dynamic analysis method in the study process.Using the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)model,static panel data model,dynamic panel data model,panel data vector autoregression(VAR)model and spatial econometric model,the industrial agglomeration mechanism and its effect on economic growth of forestry in China are studied deeply.A series of study conclusions are obtained.First,China's forestry has significant industrial agglomeration characteristics and there is a spatial positive correlation at the provincial level.By using the indexes of Concentration Ratio,spatial Gini coefficient and Location Quotient to measure the industrial agglomeration situation of China's forestry,it is found that the industrial agglomeration characteristics of China's forestry are significant,and the Location Quotient also reveals the different characteristics of the evolution of forestry industrial agglomeration among provinces.The Moran's I index is adopted to verify the significant positive spatial correlation of China's forestry industrial agglomeration among provinces,and the Moran scatter plot shows that the spatial correlation is gradually increasing.Second,there is an interactive mechanism among the three sub-industrial agglomeration of forestry in China.By contrast,the study finds that there is an internal structure differences among the China's forestry industrial agglomeration.Based on the theory of industrial agglomeration and industrial structure,this paper analyzes the interactive mechanism among the three sub-industrial agglomeration of forestry in China.The panel data VAR model is adopted to verify the conclusion of theoretical analysis,respectively from the Granger causality analysis,impulse response analysis and variance analysis.At the same time,the paper analyzes the differences of the interaction mechanism among the three regions.Third,spatial factors have a profound influence on the industrial agglomeration mechanism of forestry in China.Through including the space factors into its theoretical and empirical analysis,the theory framework of forestry industrial agglomeration mechanism becomes more perfect.The results of the empirical analysis also shows that in all kinds of spatial econometric model,the spatial lag coefficient of forestry industrial agglomeration is significant,and the key factors such as industrial foundation and labor costs have significant spatial spillover effect.These verify the theoretical analysis and provide empirical support for regional cooperation in forestry industry.Forth,forestry industrial agglomeration has nonlinear effect on forestry economic growth.The theoretical analysis shows that the industrial agglomeration of forestry will bring about the sustainable growth of forestry economy by gathering capital,labor,technology and other growth factors and utilizing its agglomeration externality effect.The empirical analysis finds that the influence of industrial agglomeration of forestry on its economic growth conforms to Williamson hypothesis,presents an inverted U-shaped characteristic,and there is a trend of transformation from agglomeration effect to crowding effect.However,it is still in the left half of the region,and there is still a broad space to promote the economic growth of forestry by improving industrial agglomeration degree.The spatial correlation of forestry industrial agglomeration also profoundly affects the spatial expression of forestry economic growth,and forestry industrial agglomeration is the key factor of forestry economic growth convergence.Fifth,forestry industrial agglomeration has different influence mechanism on forestry Total Factor Productivity through three externalities.Forestry Total Factor Productivity is an important index reflecting the efficiency of forestry economic growth.DEA-malmquist index is used to measure and analyze forestry Total Factor Productivity in China in this paper,and it is found that the quality of forestry economic growth in China keeps improving.Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the three externalities of forestry industrial agglomeration,namely MAR externality,Jacobs externality and Porter externality,have different influence mechanisms on forestry Total Factor Productivity.It is embodied in the forms of technological progress and innovation within the industry,technological exchange and innovation among industries,technological progress and innovation brought by enterprise competition,and the ways of influencing the comprehensive technological efficiency and rate of forestry technological progress are different.According to the study conclusions,the paper puts forward the following policy suggestions.First,regional comparative advantages should be brought into play to promote forestry industrial agglomeration in various regions.Second,we should strengthen the interaction of three sub-industrial agglomeration of forestry and optimize the structure of forestry industry.Third,the economic growth effect of forestry industrial agglomeration should be brought into play according to local conditions.Forth,we should make full use of the externality effect of industrial agglomeration to improve the forestry Total Factor Productivity.Fifth,the cross-regional spatial cooperation of forestry industry should be strengthened to form a new trend of forestry industrial agglomeration in China. |
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