| Reservoir immigrants are involuntary relocation groups caused by the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects.Along with the advancement of 150 major water conservancy projects,the number of reservoir immigrants in China has reached 25.02 million.There are a large number of reservoir immigrants,most of them are concentrated in the rural areas with underdeveloped social economy and unbalanced regional development.The reservoir resettlement families generally have the problems of weak productive capital,low production efficiency and lack of livelihood ability,etc.Under the influence of involuntary relocation,reservoir resettlement families experienced the double effects of some production and living environment changes and socio-economic transformation.Their livelihood activities were forced to stop or terminate,and their livelihood assets suffered losses.At the same time,objective factors such as the increasing shortage of human and land resources and the lag of relocation policy lead to increase in the risk of poverty among reservoir resettlement families.At present,theoretical supports of the research on the livelihood of reservoir immigrants are relatively single,the research perspectives are comparatively scattered,and the systematic empirical researches are relatively lacking.Therefore,it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the livelihood risk,response characteristics,development status and development path of reservoir resettlement families in the whole process of resettlement.Based on sustainable livelihood theory,social-ecological system theory and system evolution theory,the family livelihood system of reservoir immigrants was constructed in this study.The study took reservoir resettlement families as research unit,the whole process of relocation as time scales,and was in accordance with the logic of "relocation policy intervention-a living system response-characteristic analysis-development forecast-path planning",and combined with results of the continuous tracking survey of QP reservoir immigration expand theoretical and empirical research.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)On the basis of summarizing and refining the viewpoints of sustainable livelihood theory and social-ecological ecosystem theory,this paper constructs a livelihood system of reservoir affected families.In the context of interactions with other systems and institutions,the livelihood system of reservoir affected families is a micro-society-ecosystem which takes family as the unit,with livelihood capital as the input parameters,based on the livelihood ability of family and the certain strategy which can meet the basic livelihood needs of the family,and then outputs the livelihood results.Using the research method of theoretical deduction,this paper analyzes the boundary range,logical structure,operation mechanism and system attributes of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families.The core role of livelihood capital,livelihood capacity,livelihood strategy and livelihood outcome as the key elements within the system is emphasized,and the influence of cross-scale synergies on the evolution of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families is considered.The livelihood system of reservoir affected families is constructed through the thinking mode of the whole system.A new perspective and research platform is provided,for deepening the discussion on the process(evolution process,development trend,development path)analysis and mechanism(operation mechanism,risk response mechanism,development dynamic mechanism)of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families.(2)Based on the idea of resilience,this paper interprets the risk response mechanism of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families after relocation policy intervention,analyzes and measures the general and different characteristics about the systemic risk response from the perspective of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families.Persistence,transformability and adaptability are regarded as general features on the risk response of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,which can characterize the internal ability of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families about absorbing and resisting livelihood risk,changing livelihood mode,and actively adapting to the change of the environment and resettlement site.The response behavior of the reservoir affected families in different stages of the whole relocation is interpreted,and the hole evolution process of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families about risk buffering,active change and adaptation to the resettlement environment can be described by these three properties.A measurement model of the family livelihood system attributes of reservoir affected families is constructed,which is used to calculate the durability,convertibility and adaptability of each family livelihood system in the study area,as well as the score of livelihood resilience.According to the idea of structural dynamics,the internal elements of the livelihood system are divided into three categories:capital stock,internal control and composition structure.Multiple regression analysis is used to compare and analyze the similarities and differences of the core elements that significantly affect the durability,convertibility and adaptability.Then,by comparing the differences in the general characteristics of the evolution of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,the different characteristics of risk response of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families are classified as conservative,robust,innovative and flexible.The disordered multi-classification Logistic regression analysis method is adopted,to explore the influence of family endowment,development demand and resource supply on the characteristics and discrepancies of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families.In the case of QP reservoir affected sample households,the results of the empirical analysis show that:1)The properties of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families can explain the dynamic changes of the system state.And the measurement results show that,there are differences in durability,convertibility and adaptability of the livelihood system of the sample households among the reservoirs in this study,but the degree of differentiation is not high.2)After grouping 303 reservoir affected families according to livelihood strategy and resettlement model,it is found that the difference of permanence between groups is more obvious than that of adaptability and convertibility.Specifically,mean permanence of households resettled by pure farmers or farmers out of the village is higher,while the mean permanence of households resettled by pure non-farmers or county towners is lower.It reflects the advantages of agricultural production activities and resettlement environment similar to the original place in maintaining the stability of the livelihood system.3)The results of multiple regression analysis show that the core factors affecting durability,convertibility and adaptability have different emphasis,indicating that the three attributes represent the changes of livelihood system state in different stages of relocation and resettlement.4)The classification results of the risk response types of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families show that the livelihood types of the reservoir affected families in the study area are mostly innovative,and most of the families have the ability to manage and adjust themselves to cope with the relocation risk.Risk response characteristics of the livelihood system of farmers and the first type of concurrent farmers are mainly conservative and stable;while risk response characteristics are turning to innovative and flexible for the second type of concurrent farmers and non-farmers.It indicates that the development of non-agricultural production activities is helpful for reservoir affected families to actively optimize their livelihood strategies and adapt to the new environment of the resettled areas.5)The results of the disordered multi-classification regression analysis on the risk response characteristics of the four livelihood systems show that,for the three aspects of family endowment,subjective will and resources and environment,the significant factors affecting the four livelihood systems have obvious differences.The significance and parameter results of regression analysis can also be used to classify and predict the livelihood types of reservoir affected families.(3)Based on the system evolution perspective,network flow system of the money value transfer is constructed in the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,and the development status of the livelihood system after the resettlement of the reservoir affected families is evaluated.Based on the theory of poverty trap,the concept of 'development potential' and the measurement model are proposed to predict the future development trend of reservoir affected families.Firstly,the livelihood system of reservoir affected families can be characterized by the sustainability of the system.In this study,the ecological network analysis method is used to abstract the livelihood system of reservoir affected families into flow network to describe the structural characteristics and the development trend of the system.By constructing the input-output theoretical analysis framework of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,this paper analyzes the value transfer between the main elements within the livelihood system.Based on that,the network flow system of the monetary value transfer is established,and the sustainability of the monetary network flow of the system is calculated.Secondly,this study defines development potential'as the ability for reservoir affected families to keep evolving towards sustainable development after facing various pressures or shocks.The prediction of this ability is a forward-looking estimation of probability,and its essence is to estimate the probability that the sustainability of the livelihood system of reservoir immigrant families in the next period is higher than that in the current period.Considering the non-linear and dynamic characteristics of sustainability,this paper chooses the second-order polynomial specification to construct the sustainability function and development potential measurement function model of the reservoir resettlement family livelihood system,which includes the first-order Markov process of sustainability and the explanatory variables related to family endowment and unemployment risk.The system generalized moment method(GMM)is used to estimate the parameters and calculate the high-order center distance,and the density distribution function of complementary accumulation,is used to calculate the development potential of each reservoir resettlement family.In the case of QP reservoir affected sample households,the results of the empirical analysis show that:1)The sustainability of the livelihood system of 303 reservoir affected households in the study area is far less than the optimal sustainability value of random network system,which indicates that the structure of the reservoir affected families' livelihood system is weak,the function is simple,and the constraint ability between the core elements is not strong.It also reflects that the operational efficiency of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families is low,lacking the power of growth and the ability of self-organization.This study infers that the livelihood system of most reservoir affected families is still in the development(r)stage in the process of adaptive cycle after they move to the new resettlement sites.Therefore,it is suggested that the supporting policies should start from improving the system connectivity and self-organization ability to promote the evolution of the reservoir affected families to the best sustainable development state.2)By comparing the sustainable development status of four types of reservoir affected families with different livelihood system characteristics,the rank of sustainability of each type of family livelihood system is as follows:flexible>innovative>robust>conservative.The results show that high adaptability and high convertibility play an important role in the sustainable evolution of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families after relocation.3)The results of GMM estimation of sustainability show that the sustainability,fixed asset value,current asset value,non-agricultural employment rate and social network in the previous period have significant positive effects on sustainability in the current period,and the marginal effects of the above explanatory variables on sustainability are decreasing in turn.Unemployment risk and dependency ratio have significant negative effect on the current sustainability,and the marginal effect decreases in turn.4)The least square estimation of the sustainability variance shows that the unemployment risk faced by the reservoir affected families will reduce the sustainability of their development.According to the estimation results of the least square method,it can be inferred that the sustainability has the characteristics of dynamic non-linear development path.It's concluded that the unemployment risk will significantly affect the development potential of the livelihood system of reservoir resettlement families.According to the demographic characteristics of family endowments and family assets,families with high dependency ratio have lower development potential,while those with high non-agricultural employment rate,high educational background of head of household,high value of current assets,or more key nodes of social network generally have higher development potential.5)The results show that among 303 reservoir affected families,254 households have development potential and 49 households do not.Among the families with development potential,most of them are innovative and flexible,while most of the families without development potential are conservative and stable ones.It is shown that the high adaptability and high transformability can improve the growth scale and development quality of the network flow,which plays a crucial role in resisting the future unknown livelihood risk and promoting the evolution of the livelihood system to the direction of sustainable development.(4)Based on the theory of system evolution,this paper explores the dynamic mechanism and development path of long-term sustainable development of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families in the new resettlement area under the support and drive of national development strategy and local relocation policy.Based on the analysis of the mechanism and path of the multi-level driving force system on the sustainable development of the livelihood of the reservoir affected families,this paper constructs a system dynamics model of the sustainable development of the livelihood of the reservoir affected families,and reveals the dynamic mechanism of the sustainable development of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families.By setting up seven policy scenarios and comparing the simulation results of various policy implementation effects,it is found that the multi-measures supporting policies can cover more development demands of reservoir affected families and satisfy their long-term development interests.In particular,it is necessary to strengthen support in the aspects of increasing investment in characteristic industries,increasing production subsidies,and improving the frequency and quality of collective education and training services.By improving the livelihood ability of reservoir affected families to take the initiative to innovate and improving the adaptive management level of village collective,the sustainable development of those families' livelihood can be helped.Therefore,this paper puts forward the development path of the active transformation of the livelihood system of the reservoir resettlement families from the perspective of livelihood ability,and the path of the coordinated development of the livelihood system of the reservoir resettlement families and the village man-land system from the perspective of adaptive management,so as to provide reference for the formulation of later support planning.In conclusion,this paper analyzes the differences of risk response characteristics and development status of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,explores the general rules of the evolution process and development path of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,and reveals the operation mechanism,response mechanism to external risks and the development dynamic mechanism of the driving force of the livelihood system of reservoir resettlement families.The innovations of this study are as follows:(1)Combining the sustainable livelihood theory with the social-ecosystem theory,the analysis framework of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families is constructed,and the theoretical system and research perspective of the livelihood problem are improved;(2)Based on the idea of resilience,the concept and connotation of the livelihood system attributes of reservoir affected families are proposed and expanded,and the quantitative analysis method of the family livelihood system attributes of reservoir affected families is developed,which enriches the technical means of quantitative research on the livelihood related issues of reservoir affected families;(3)Based on the ascendency theory and the perspective of system evolution,the monetary network flow system of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families is constructed for the first time,which realized the quantitative assessment of the development status of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,and broke through the conventional thinking that the traditional method was persistent in exploring the causality of livelihood problem;(4)Based on the poverty trap theory,the concept,function model and measurement method of 'development potential' are put forward to to predict the future sustainable development level of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families,which makes up the current research gap in predicting the future development status of reservoir resettlement families;(5)Based on the driving force theory,the system dynamics model of the sustainable development of the livelihood system of reservoir affected families is constructed,the dynamic mechanism of the sustainable development of the livelihood system is analyzed,and the sustainable development path of cross-scale management is innovatively proposed,which provides a reasonable basis for relevant research and policy formulation. |
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