| The problem of poverty is a worldwide problem which must be faced and solved urgently in the economic and social development of developing countries.Since the 18 th national congress of the communist party of China,the strategy of targeted poverty alleviation is implemented and decisive progress in the fight against poverty is made.From2013 to 2018,China's accumulative rural poor population decreased by 823.9 million,which is 83.2% compared with 2012.By the end of 2018,there are still 16.6 million rural poor population remained.While great achievements have been made in poverty alleviation,China's task to eradicate poverty remain arduous.The remaining poor are in relatively deeper poverty,which makes poverty reduction more costly and more difficult.It is a major task to lift all the poor people in rural areas out of poverty by 2020.Agricultural insurance,as an important means of risk management of rural economic and an important tool to subsidize “agriculture,rural areas and farmers”,will play an active role in poverty alleviation.As a basic industry,agriculture faces many risks in the whole production cycle due to its own vulnerability and the particularity of the production process,and agricultural risks will have a significant impact on agricultural production.China is one of the countries in the world with frequent natural disasters,large affected areas and severe loss.The current impoverished population in China is mainly gathered in the remote rural areas where natural conditions are bad and natural disasters occur frequently,and the main economy of these areas is usually planting and breeding.Frequent natural disasters have caused great economic losses to farmers.Once agricultural risks occur,the lack of insurance will have a significant impact on the rural economy and the productive life of rural residents.The phenomenon of becoming poor or even returning to poverty due to disaster often occurs.Frequent natural disasters in poor areas have become one of the biggest obstacles to local farmers' poverty alleviation.Agricultural insurance become an important poverty alleviation tool in China because it can effectively disperse and transfer the agricultural risks faced by farmers,provide guarantee for farmers' production and operation.Agricultural insurance can compensate farmers for the loss of production materials and costs after the occurrence of natural disasters and other agricultural risks,improving farmers' ability to resist the risks of natural disasters.Since the implementation ofpolicy-based agricultural insurance in 2007,the development of agricultural insurance has entered the fast lane.In 2018,the premium income of agricultural insurance in China was57.265 billion yuan,providing 346 million yuan of risk protection for 195 million households,making China the second largest agricultural insurance market in the world.In2018,China's agricultural insurance paid 42.315 billion yuan in compensation,benefiting62.4496 million households.Agricultural insurance compensation has become an important source of funds for farmers to resume production and reconstruction in disaster-hit areas.While making achievements in poverty alleviation,due to the short development history and other reasons,there are still some problems in China's agricultural insurance system and its operation: the identification of population structure of poverty alleviation by agricultural insurance is not accurate.The same agricultural insurance arrangement is applied to farmers of different wealth levels.The insurance policy is not targeted enough and the object of poverty alleviation is not accurate so is the product structure of agricultural insurance and the insurance premium subsidy structure for poverty alleviation.Insurance products are single and cannot meet the diversified needs of farmers.As a result,the financial fund for poverty alleviation has the problem of misallocation of resources,and the subsidy structure needs to be precisely optimized.Under the thought of precise poverty alleviation,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to optimize the current agricultural insurance system and further enhance the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance.This paper did an in-depth study on this question.According to the precise connotation of poverty alleviation,from the perspective of enhancing effect of poverty alleviation,analyzed the structure of subsidies for poverty alleviation,the agricultural insurance objects and product structure.Studied the mode which combined the agricultural insurance and other methods of the poverty alleviation.Put forward suggestions about how to improve the system of agricultural insurance,further play a crucial role for poverty alleviation of agricultural insurance,promote the development of rural economy and how to avoid farmers returning to poverty in post-poverty era.This article analyzes agricultural insurance gradually from the perspective of the basic theory of agricultural insurance model,basic assumptions,agricultural insurance effect for poverty alleviation,research on "agricultural insurance + rural credit" model for poverty alleviation,agricultural insurance effect for poverty alleviation under a variety ofcircumstances,sensitivity analysis and main conclusions and prospect analysis.This article mainly is divided into seven parts:Chapter 1.Introduction.It is mainly divided into four parts,that is,the background and significance of the research,the purpose of the research,the literature review and summary at home and abroad,the basic idea and structure arrangement of the paper based on the research background and significance,and the research innovation of the paper.Chapter 2.The agricultural risk,the agricultural insurance and the insurance poverty alleviation of China.This chapter introduces the concepts of agricultural risk,agricultural risk management and agricultural insurance in detail,sorts out and summarizes the development status of Chinese policy-based agricultural insurance,summarizes the advantages and achievements of China's agricultural insurance poverty alleviation model,and analyzes the problems still existing in Chinese policy-based agricultural insurance in precise poverty alleviation.Chapter 3.The multiple equilibrium model of agricultural risk.This chapter is the model basis of the whole paper,which introduces the general equilibrium model and the multiple equilibrium model in detail,and analyzes the causes of the multiple equilibrium model's multiple equilibrium points.Established the multiple equilibrium model of agricultural economic development,analyzed the mechanism of poverty trap.Obtained the poverty probability of peasant households with different initial capital through numerical simulation,and discussed the poverty status of peasant households.Chapter 4.Research on targeted poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance.This chapter is the key part of the whole paper.Under the concept of targeted poverty alleviation,this chapter effectively combines the insurance actuarial theory with the multiple equilibrium model,establishes the multiple equilibrium model of agricultural risk and agricultural insurance,quantifies the probability of farmers falling into poverty under the catastrophe risk and general agricultural risk through numerical simulation,and accurately divides the farmers with effective poverty alleviation insurance.Through the analysis of the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance and premium subsidy policies,identified the absolute poverty,relative poverty and relatively rich peasant household groups,and gave accurate suggestions on differentiated premium subsidy policies.The optimal agricultural insurance products were designed from the perspective ofsecurity level,which increased the diversity of agricultural insurance market and increased the enthusiasm of farmers for insurance,compared with fixed security level products.In addition,this chapter makes theoretical research and policy suggestions on the aspects of differentiated agricultural insurance subsidies and strengthening the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance.Chapter 5."agricultural insurance + rural credit" poverty alleviation model research.This chapter is based on the research in chapter 4 and considers increasing rural credit support for poor farmers."Agricultural insurance + rural credit" combination can not only meet the financing needs of farmers,and can improve the ability of farmers to control risk,activating the financial market in poor rural areas can give full play to the maximum leverage of financial funds to benefit farmers and support farmers.It is an important poverty alleviation model to solve the problem of the in-depth poor population in rural areas.In this chapter,a multiple equilibrium model including only rural financial credit and "agricultural insurance + rural credit" is established under agricultural risks to accurately identify the poor population.Agricultural insurance products are designed from the perspective of ensuring hierarchy,and the poverty alleviation effect of "agricultural insurance + rural credit" model is analyzed under different proportion of premium subsidy and interest subsidy.Chapter 6.The precise poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance under various circumstances.This chapter is based on the above chapters,and continued to promote the research of the paper.Continue to study the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance under the consumption constraint of farmers;Under the combination mode of agricultural insurance and farmers' cooperatives,the paper studies the assistance to farmers in deep poverty;Under the risk of the market,assuming that the price of agricultural products is related to the output,the anti-poverty effect of agricultural insurance is discussed.In the above three cases,the change of probability of peasant households with different capital stepping into poverty trap was calculated through numerical simulation to study the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance.Chapter 7.Conclusion and prospect.This chapter summarizes the main conclusions of the whole research,obtains the poverty alleviation effect of different forms of agricultural insurance on different farmers,gives the policy suggestions to improve the precisionpoverty alleviation of agricultural insurance,and points out the existing problems and shortcomings of the paper,and prospects for the follow-up research.The innovations of this paper include:(1)Starting from the risk characteristics of agricultural production,established multiple equilibrium model to carry out precise poverty alleviation research of agricultural insurance,conducive to the accurate and detailed discussion of precise poverty alleviation policies of agricultural insurance.This paper established a multiple equilibrium model of agricultural risk-agricultural insurance,and studied the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance under catastrophe risk and general risk,accurately divides insurance poverty alleviation population,precisely designs insurance products,precisely optimizes premium subsidy structure,and puts forward policy suggestions.(2)It combines the actuarial theory with the multiple equilibrium model in economic theory.This paper defines the probability of farmers falling into poverty based on the bankruptcy theory of actuarial insurance.The actuarial theory is embedded into the multiple equilibrium model through the design of the expenditure of agricultural insurance premium,agricultural insurance premium subsidy and optimal agricultural insurance.By realizing organic combination of the two kinds of theory,this paper analyzed the effect of agricultural insurance on poverty alleviation,the precise subsidy of insurance premium,the precise and accurate design of insurance products,and gave some policy suggestions.(3)Discussed the poverty alleviation effect of agricultural insurance under various circumstances.Comprehensively considered the models which combined agricultural insurance and other poverty alleviation.Analyzed the poverty alleviation effect of "agricultural insurance + agricultural credit" mode and "agricultural insurance + farmer cooperative" mode,and finds that the two poverty alleviation modes both have better poverty alleviation effect on farmers in deep poverty than the use of agricultural insurance policy alone.This paper studies the anti-poverty effect of agricultural insurance under certain consumption constraints of farmers and uncertain prices of agricultural products,and designed premium subsidy policies. |
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