Research On The Manufacturing Upgrading Effect Of "the Belt And Road Initiative" OFDI Reverse Technology Spillover

Since the 1980 s,with the continuous deepening of economic globalization,the division of production within products has gradually replaced the division of production between industries.International production and transnational production division are characterized by increasing vertical specialization and chain.Countries all over the world participate in intra-product production division based on their factor endowment characteristics and comparative advantages.They are embedded in the global value chain production division system.The enhancement of economic resource complementarity among countries can directly drive the interconnected economic development of major countries and regions.In the open and free intra-product production division,the scarcity of resource endowment determines the integration of countries into the world market through the value chain.The producing process is divided into multiple production links and processes through foreign direct investment(OFDI),and countries undertake different production division links according to their own comparative advantages.In the process of realizing the transnational flow of scarce resources and strategic assets,each country maximizes the use of external resources and factors,so as to obtain different trade gains.Therefore,OFDI has become an important way to promote the optimal allocation of factor resources on a global scale,an important engine to drive the formation of division of labor in the global value chain,and a way for the investment home country to utilize foreign resources to promote domestic economic development and obtain the effect of foreign direct investment.Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China's OFDI has been accelerating.In particular,"the Belt and Road Initiative(B&R)" aims to build a community of shared future and promote high-quality development.Its gradual implementation provides an opportunity for China to promote manufacturing upgrading through OFDI.Accordingly,with the continuous increase of OFDI in countries along the route of "B&R",the economic effect of "B&R" OFDI,particularly the follow-up study on the spillover effect of OFDI reverse technology,has become a hot spot and key issue of current research,and also the core issue of this paper.Based on the ductility definition and analysis of the formation basis and transmission mechanism of the manufacturing upgrading effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover,this paper systematically studies the effect of "B&R" OFDI on the manufacturing upgrading in China from the perspective of value-added accounting.Particularly,this paper selects sample countries along the "B&R" route and analyzes the division of labor in the manufacturing value chain,the spillover of OFDI reverse technology and the effect of manufacturing upgrading in "B&R" route countries respectively at the national and industry levels according to the technological heterogeneity.On this basis,further empirical analysis is conducted about the direct and indirect effects of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover on China's manufacturing upgrading.The significance of this paper is that by clarifying the division of labor in the main industrial value chain of relevant countries along the "B&R" route and the extent of the spillover effect of OFDI reverse technology,the study is conducive to continuously promote the implementation of "B&R" in the future,strengthen production capacity cooperation between China and countries along the route of "B&R",and build a regional value chain of "B&R".In this way,it can further promote the the position and participation of China in the global value chain,maximize the spillover effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology,promote the sustainable development of China's economy,and enhance China's influence in the international economy.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper defines and systematizes the basis for the formation of "B&R" OFDI manufacturing upgrading effect.On the basis of reviewing the formation mechanism of OFDI reverse technology spillover in developing countries,it extends the definition of the formation mechanism and transmission path of the manufacturing upgrading effect of "B&R" OFDI,and constructs a framework system of value-added trade accounting,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the objective judgment of the influence of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover on China's manufacturing upgrading.Secondly,this paper adopts the value-added trade accounting method to construct and use the value chain division to analyze the relevant index system and position index,and analyzes the real situation of the source of added manufacturing value and the division of value chain in the sample countries along the "B&R" from the perspectives of nation and 14 manufacturing industries.This paper shows the differences in the production division position and participation of sample countries in the manufacturing value chain,so as to provide a practical basis for strengthening the differentiated international cooperation with countries along the "B&R" in the future,and giving better play to the spillover effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology.The third is the "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover manufacturing upgrading effect analysis.Based on the analysis of the production division of the manufacturing value chain in "B&R" countries,from the perspective of technology heterogeneity at country and industry levels,this paper measures and analyzes the situation of China's OFDI reverse technology spillover to the manufacturing industry in "B&R" countries,China's OFDI manufacturing upgrading status of "B&R" countries along the route,as well as the export technical complexity effect status of "B&R" OFDI manufacturing upgrading.This provides basic data for further empirical test.The fourth is the empirical test of direct and indirect effects of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover on manufacturing upgrading.According to the division of labor and participation in the manufacturing value chain in the sample countries,using transnational panel data at the high,medium,and low technology manufacturing levels,this paper empirically analyzes the direct and indirect effects of OFDI reverse technology spillovers from sample countries along the "B&R" route on China's manufacturing upgrading from different technical levels of country and industry.The main contributions of the paper are:(1)This paper defines and analyzes the formation mechanism of the manufacturing upgrading effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover,and conducts progressive analysis and researc h on the influence of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover on China's manufacturing upgrading,using the value added method to measure the existence of the spillover effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology,test its influence degree,and form a systematic research results on the manufacturing upgrading effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover;therefore it promotes and enriches the systematic research on this issue.(2)In order to objectively reflect the real trade status between China and "B&R" countries,the value-added accounting method is used to analyze the production division position and participation in the main manufacturing value chain of the sample countries of "B&R",which provides a new research perspective and method for accurately measuring and understanding the spillover effect of OFDI reverse technology in the manufacturing industry of "B&R" countries.(3)This study broadens the transmission path and empirical method of the effect of OFDI reverse technology spillover on China's manufacturing upgrading.The existing literature mostly adopts the parallel research method in the empirical research,which fails to reflect the crossover research of multi-level relations.In this paper,the dynamic GMM panel data model and the static fixed-effect panel model are integrated for the first time to demonstrate the direct effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover on China's manufacturing upgrading from two dimensions of countries and industries at different technological levels.It further takes manufacturing upgrading at different technical levels as an explanatory variable to verify the indirect effect of "B&R" OFDI reverse technology spillover on export technical complexity in manufacturing upgrading.Moreover,in the process of variable construction,the added domestic value in the value added decomposition framework is used as the weight to construct the index of the effect of reverse technology spillover on manufacturing upgrading and the influence coefficient of the technical complexity of manufacturing export,so as to expand and improve the transmission path and empirical method of the influence of OFDI reverse technology spillover on China's manufacturing upgrading.In short,through the analysis of the value chain position and participation of major countries along the "B&R",this paper reflects the possibility of constructing the "B&R" value chain and reintegrating it into the global value chain division pattern.Therefore,China can more specifically build a mutually beneficial "B&R" international production capacity division and cooperation mechanism,so as to bring into play the economic value of "B&R" international production capacity cooperation.Through the division of production in the "B&R" regional value chain,small and medium-sized countries along the "B&R" can significantly enhance their ability to cope with international economic turbulence,and increase their gaming ability with interest groups of developed countries such as the United States.They can also play a leading role in the transformation of global value chain production division and enhance the voice and role of developing countries represented by China in the reconstruction of world order.