Bearing Capacity Of The Water Resources In Ningxia

Water resources is important natural resources in the development of national economy and social progress. Together with petroleum and food, water resources are among the 3 most important strategically resources in the current world. However, with the rapid development in the economic and social progress, the conflicts between the supply and demand of water resources have become more and more outstanding. The problems of water resources have become restraints and "bottle neck" against the sustainable development of the national economy and social progress, the problems such as drought andwater shortage, floods and water logging, water environment deterioration, water erosion and soil loss. How to properly handle the relations between water resources and population as well as between environment and sustainable economic development has become a focus of social concern and a hot topic of scientific research. On the basis of the current situation of the water resources, the tenth 5-year-plan and the long-term goal by the year 2010, these studies approach to the maximum bearing capacity of the water resources (BCWR) supporting the national economy and social development in Ningxia, under the foreseeable conditions of technical, economic and social development as well as the favorable ecological improvement.By means of the combination of system dynamics with multiple objective programming and on the basis of the assessment on the current situation of the water resources, systematic analysis was made on the targets of the national economic and social development as well as the water resources arrangement schemes at various target years and under different strategically planning. As a result, mathematical models of BCWR were established to reflect the relations among water resources, economy, population, environment and social progress. Through dynamic computer simulation, BCWR at various target years and under different strategically planning was calculated. On the basis of the analysis and assessment of BCWR, strategically schemes and policymeasures that could satisfy both the requirements in water resources and the social economic development were proposed.The main achievements of the studies could be reflected in the following 3 schemes. In the 1st scheme, the economic BCWR in the year 2020 will amount to 218. 46 billion Yuan (27, 200 Yuan per capita) with the corresponding water resources consumption of 4.79 billion cubic meters. In the 2nd scheme, the economic BCWR in the year 2020 will amount to 225. 02 billion Yuan (28, 000 Yuan per capita) with the corresponding water resources consumption of 4. 87 billion cubic meters. In the 3rd scheme, the economic BCWR in the year 2020 will amount to 235.36 billion Yuan (29,300 Yuan per capita) with the corresponding water resources consumption of 4. 99 billion cubic meters. The analysis of the various assessment indicators showed that the 1st scheme was the best, which could basically satisfy the requirements for the social economic development under the water resources conditions in Ningxia.The analysis on the basis of the short-term goal of the national economic and social development indicated that water saving must be emphasized and be given the first priority in favor of the sustainable social and economic development in Ningxia. Both the production structure and water use structure should be greatly modified. The key point is to save water in agricultural production so as to support urbanization process and industrial development. Therefore, a society of water saving will be gradually established. From the long-term point of view, however, the sustainable social and economic development in Ningxia will finally depend on the availability of more water resources. Only through the construction of Daliushu Dam across the Yellow River and the engineering to diverge water from the south to the north, could the problems of water resources deficiency that has impacted the sustainable social and economic development and ecological improvement in Ningxia and ev...