Research Of Factors Affect The Homemade Auto Car Demand

Along with the development of national economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of auto car is getting increasingly concerned with nowadays. Due to the characteristic of the auto industry, motivating auto car consumption is becoming more and more important to stimulate domestic demand and accelerate economy growth. Therefore, it seems to be necessary to explore in the area of the demand of homemade auto car.With the abundant information gathered in auto production, distribution and consumption, the article finds out the relevant factors and conducts a quantitative and qualitative analysis by means of classification. It categorizes the factors into three aspects as correlative policy, macro-economic condition and consumer psychology. Finally, it forecasts the quantity demanded and development trend of auto car during the next five years.Policy: On the aspect of correlative policy, the article analyzes the strong influence of varied policies on auto car demand. The most important policies among those are national industry policy, local consumption policy, tax policy, environment protection policy,reform policy of government allocated car system and financial credit policy. With the rich examples, data and charts provided, the article draws the conclusion that our domestic auto car market is a highly influenced market by policy.Macro-economic condition: Gray forecast method and econometrics models are used in studying the relationship between macro-economic condition and the demand of auto car. The relationship of the demand to Per Capita GDP, AnnualPer Capita Disposable Income of Urban Residences, Balance of Savings Deposit of Rural and Urban Residents is studied quantitatively. The article proves that the three factors listed above have linear relationship with auto car demand. Amongthese factors Balance of Savings Deposit of Rural and Urban Residents couldaccelerate the increase of auto car demand most In addition, the article discussesthe influences of imported auto cars and investment on traffic in a qualitative way.Consumer psychology: From the perspective of the auto car consumers' psychology analysis, we concluded that our residents' view about the auto car consumption is relatively conservative, and it will take a long time to change. We believe that it is crucial to align the consumption view with the development of national economy.In our efforts to make forecasts for the quantity demand of auto car within the period of the next five years, three methods such as gray forecast, econometrics equation set and time-trend forecast are used. Since the results of these three methods are very close, they may be reliable and used as reference for auto car industry.