| From the establishment of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, it has been about ten years. The supervising and self-discipline systems are becoming better and better with the stock market's development. But recently a series of finance cheating happened in the stock market such as the Qiong Minyuan, Hong Guang and Macat Company. Supervise institution and investors are paying more and more attention to the auditing report, then the audit institutions are the core. As we all know, CPA audit is different from the government and inner audit for it does not have the compulsory. And the listed firms have the right to choose its audit institution with certain freedom, so the alternation of auditors is rising. Relevant data indicate that since 1995 the percentage of changing auditors in listed firms has increased year by year. It included not only the normal accounting firm change but also these who change auditors for good audit opinions and finance report.The sponsors for auditor alternation can be listed companies or the accounting firms. If the auditor disagrees with companies' accounting policies and gives unclear opinions, he will be fired and the audit quality may be poor. The auditor can also quit if he think the audit risk is too high. In this case, the audit quality is enhanced. Current our country has about 72 accounting firms that can do stock and futures business. These firms' scales are small and have great dependence on single customer. The vigorous competition makes auditors with great independence changed more frequently and it also means that listed firms have more choice in changing auditors.The auditor alternation has caused the government, employees and scholars' attention. They have enhanced the supervising and used different methods to find the reasons of changing. Considering present condition and the accountant periodical rotation, this article sampled the listed firms that changed their auditors in 2002 and did an empirical analysis to find the chief reason and establish the estimate model. Based on the analysis we can tell whether the alternation can impel the stock market's development, improve the audit quality and benefit the positive competition of auditing institutions. Also we can do some proposals to these problems.This paper synthesized different factors that effected the auditor alternation and put forward certain assumptions in the past researches' foundation. Compared with previous articles, this one considered more factors and got a clear result of what affect audit changes and those with poor effect. Fifty five companies have been chosen as the changed data in 2002 and another fifty five ones without change were included as pair samples. These samples can reflect current condition of auditor changing and the pairs are from the same industry with approximate scale to avoid the industry and scale's effect to our analysis. The author put great emphasis on influence factors. After a concise analysis of present condition and information publishing, this thesis made use of description statistics and Logistic regression to check its hypothesis and design a model to forecast the possibility of changing auditors.The description statistics showed that the alternation possibility was small when listed company and its auditor were in the same region, but in different place the possibility was bigger. If the listed firm got a non-standard auditing opinion, it would probably change its auditor. In the case of standard opinion, the changing possibility was low. When the company has been special treated, the probability will bee greater and on the contrary it would not. In the changed samples the ratio of accrual income to net income is higher than unchanged and these companies will probably manage their earnings. As to the ROE in pro-list year, it is greater in companies that altered their auditors than these not. Because the lower it is, the poorer the profitability is and the company is easy to face finance disaster.The Forward method has been selected to si...
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