Study On Risk Management Of Software Poject Based On EXPERT COCOMO Model

The software industries of China have developed for more than 20 years and got great achievements. But many of them are in low CMM level. The existing risk theories of software project mainly aim at big and medium industry, which is engaged in complex and big project. These theories have little significance on small-scale software project. Besides the low CMM level, lack of theory direction and uncertain nature lead to a pretty pass. That is, many software projects have big risk with low success ration. So it is meaningful to investigate risk management of software project that is suitable for medium and small software industries in our country.This paper first summarized the risk theories of software project, then analyzed the present condition of Chinese software industries and restricted the research object. Second the paper introduced the concept and characteristic of software project risk and comparatively analysis the classical risk theories of software project. Based on these theories the paper provided a suitable risk management model— EXPERT COCOMO. Through further study the deficiency of the model had been found, then selected function point method to cover the shortage. At last used an example to demonstrate the above method and sensitivity analysis was also been carried out.The risk management of software project is a complex system problem. This paper aims to provide a framework to identify assess and control the software risk for small and medium industry. So the paper may supply useful consult for decision-maker who can make the decision more reasonable and scientific.