Cooperation And Competition Between The Great Powers On The Iranian Nuclear Issue

Iran, with abundant energy sources and great geopolitically strategic value, is a civilized ancient nation of four or five thousand years, which has gradually fallen into a semi-colony of Western powers in early 19^th century. Iran has cooperated with countries such as US, West Germany and China, Russia in the nuclear field from 1957. The knowledge, materials and facilities necessary for nuclear exploitation were acquired through the cooperation above and Iran's independent work of research and development.Iranian nuclear exploitation became an "issue" after the disclosure of its two secret nuclear facilities in August 2002. Experts and inspectors from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have visited Iranian nuclear sites concerned many times since February 2003. In 2003 and 2004, the EU3 (Britain, France and Germany) produced two agreements with Tehran after many rounds of negotiations. Along with Iran's restarting uranium transformation and nuclear fuel research activities one after the other, diplomats from the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany (5+1) began to hold meetings to confront this issue together from 2006. Iran was referred to the UN Security Council (UNSC) the same year. By far the Iranian nuclear issue has plunged into a stalemate. On one hand, Iran has failed to suspend its nuclear activities according to the UNSC resolutions; on the other hand, the IAEA has found no evidence of Iran's potential nuclear weapons program. Meanwhile, the IAEA can not ensure whether there are any undeclared nuclear activities or facilities in Iran. US, EU, Russia and China has taken each stance because of their respective interests involving in this issue. Cooperation between the great powers comes from the common interests, while competition from different concerns. It is the common interests for the great powers to maintain the framework of non-proliferation; furthermore, it is the common stance to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.Examine the past in order to understand the present, for without yesterday there is no today. So it is necessary to review the history concerned before we discuss the interactivities between the great powers on the nuclear issue. US and EU were all indifferent to post-revolutionary Iran in 1980s. Since 1990s pressure of sanctions has maintained from US to Iran, however EU-Iran "critical dialogue", "comprehensive dialogue" and trade negotiations have been held step by step at the same time. It is the common goal for US and EU to contain Iran's potential nuclear ambitions, and military force is taken into consideration when necessary. Nevertheless, the two have different approaches: US believes the Iranian regime to be the primary problem, whereas EU sees Tehran's nuclear program as the key issue. Europeans are concerned more with Iran's capabilities than with its intentions, but Americans see the issue in the reverse term. US, considering EU's stance too soft, held a skeptical attitude towards EU's negotiation efforts with Iran after 2002. US urged IAEA to report Iran to UNSC for sanctions in the event of Iran's noncompliance; by contrast, EU pinned its hope on more diplomatic efforts. The Bush administration has ever offered some symbolic supports for the EU incentives-based approach in March 2005, such as holding out the prospect of backing Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Then Americans and Europeans could not agree with each other upon how to act after Iran's future referral to the UNSC, though there was a harder and harder position accompanied by Ahmadinejad's Iranian presidential victory. US and EU have gradually taken a similar position after Iran's referral to the UNSC in 2006.Russia plays a very different role in the development of the nuclear issue. Iran was a "base point" in the process of Russia's coming back to the Middle East in later 1990s. The Bushehr reactor, a symbol of Russia-Iran nuclear cooperation, was criticized heavily by US because of its sensitive connections with nuclear weapons. The main concern from US was that the expertise and technology gained from Bushehr could be used to advance Iran's nuclear weapons effort; however, nuclear cooperation with Iran became a litmus test of the independence of Russian foreign policy in the face of US pressure. In addition, Russia has ever tied the completion of the Bushehr project with EU-Iran negotiations as leverage over Iran in order to support the EU efforts. Russia had made great efforts to prevent US from referring Iran to UNSC during the early three years of the nuclear issue. Russia initiated three proposals for the international community in 2005 and 2006, within which Russia suggested that Iran transfer its uranium enrichment program to Russian territory. Iran denied all the proposals later. Russia, being committed to amend the concrete clauses of the EU-US drafts, was in favor of all the resolutions about Iran in UNSC.Both China and Iran are proud of their own ancient civilizations. Also they have shared memories for aggression and humiliation by Western powers in the modern era. From 1985 to 1997 China has ever supported Iran to exploit its nuclear energy. There may not have been an explicit quid pro quo between oil and nuclear issues. But implicitly, at least, solidarity in one area facilitated cooperation in other areas. Presently the Sino-Iranian oil relationship has been confronting more and more pressure from US. Compared with China's activeness in 2004 and 2005, it kept a low profile on the nuclear issue in the early years. On one hand, China used all kinds of occasions to express opposition to Iran's referral to UNSC pushed by US "hegemony"; on the other hand, the Chinese government, showing a spirit of realism, tried to keep a balance between principles and flexibility. Like Russia, China was also in favor of all the resolutions about Iran in UNSC. At the same time China always helped Russia to lesson the strength of those drafts.How will the Iranian nuclear issue develop in future? It will be decided by Iran itself as the internal factor as well as by policies and actions of great powers as the external factor. Though Iran may have no nuclear ambitions, it is very difficult to trust this country for the international community. Maybe Iran has undeclared ambitions and finally acquire nuclear weapons. If it fails to get these weapons, it is possible for Iran to give up its nuclear program through Libya Pattern or direct US-Iran bargaining on its own initiative, or Iran is forced to do that through Iraq Pattern. The author of this paper thinks that the nuclear issue will maintain in the delaying stalemate in the short term after his analyses of the several possibilities above.