Research On Real Estate Market Cycle Theory And Its Application To Investment Decision

The development of the real estate market shows a phenomenon of periodic fluctuation. Analyzing the cycle of the real estate market, not only has a creative significance in theory, but also can guide the real estate investors and developers to make decision. The real estate investment decision is the crux in the whole process of real estate development, the rationality and scientificalness of that will influence directly the development of the investment project. How to use the real estate market cycle theory to guide investment decision is a difficult problem of the decision-maker. This paper aims to discuss the method of making decision based on the real estate market cycle theory to avoid risk. The investment decision based on cycle of real estate market is taken as the object. Guided by the theory and research method of economic cycle, this thesis firstly constructs the fundamental theory frame, then makes empirical analysis of the cycle of real estate market, finally puts forward how these theories to be used in real estate alert forecast system and market decision. The thesis follows the way from fundamental theory to empirical analysis and combines quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. On one hand, the thesis describes the basic theory of cycle of the real estate market and its influence factors, and researches their relationship by establishing VAR model. On the other hand, the thesis forecasts the real estate price and commercial housing sale volume through the empirical analysis. It will be useful for government and enterprises to make their investment decisions in market.