| ABSTRACT:Since reform and opening-up, China's comprehensive transportation enter a new period of great development.lt has effectively promoted China's economic development and social progress.But at the same time, as a high-energy consuming industry, transportation is consuming a lot of energy, so exploring the way of energy-saving is more important.Paper divides transportation energy consumption into freight and passenger transportation energy consumption, and establishes the five factors model for them. Based on the method of factors influence analysis, the paper does the following work:(1) The paper introduces the application of factors influence analysis in the transportation energy consumption analysis. According to the development trend of related factors, the paper analyzes the relationship between these factors and changes in transportation energy consumption. Then the paper proposes three concepts of energy consumption decrement, energy consumption increment, energy consumption variation and their calculation method. According the definition of energy-saving of the World Energy Council and the design of scenario combined scheme of transportation energy consumption, the paper puts forward the concept of energy-saving potential of transportation and its calculation method.(2) The paper forecasts the development trend of economic development (GDP, transport turnover), transportation structures, transportation energy intensity, the average transport distance in next tow decades. and designes different scenarios for the first three programs, so that 18 kinds of scenario combined schemes of freight and passenger transportation energy consumption are finally formed.(3) Based on the forecast data, the paper calculates transportation energy-saving of 18 kinds of scenario combined schemes using the method of factors influence analysis in the transportation energy consumption, then analyzes the results of conclusions in detail and draws conclusions. |
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