Dynamic Analysis Of The Potential Of Rural Construction Land Consolidation

On one hand, as the development of society and urbanization, urban land becomes scarcity. On the other hand, there is great potential capacity in rural development due to its low rate of utilization and output. The consolidation of land will lead to a large number of benefits for development both in urban and rural area. For instance, it can improve circumstance in rural area, as well as, lessen scarcity of urban construction land and ensure its supply. Investment and consumption are strongly driven by land consolidation. As a result of land consolidation, speed of urbanization will grow sharply. Therefore, potentiality analysis of rural construction land consolidation is necessary for development. In recent years, potentiality analysis of rural construction land consolidation focus on evaluation of current economic development, rather than future dynamic analysis. Nevertheless, different stages of development have different potentiality. Based on these facts, potentiality dynamic analysis on rural construction land consolidation has certain theoretical and practical effects, which will provide a reference for futural development.This paper is based on massive previous research both from domestic and abroad. It takes Shouguang in Shandong as an example to explain how factors affect land potentiality. AHP is used in this research to determine the weights of indicators. Different forecasting methods and dynamic analysis of indicators are discussed here to calculate the potentiality at a future development stages. In the final strategy, calculation of potentiality of rural land consolidation is determined by multifactor assessment.The empirical results show that the residential land pre capita, urbanization and capital are the main factors in rural land consolidation. The potential capacity is different in different levels of economic development, urbanization and residential land pre capita. In order to better explore the potential capacity, we should protect the rights of landless peasants, reduce the residential land pre capita, speed up urbanization and supervise the input capital. By these means, we can promote the theoretical potentiality into real potentiality as much as possible and to stimulate coordinate and sustainable development.