The Simulation Research Based On System Dynamics For The Policy Analysis In Urbanization

There are many projects, such as the modern production, scientific research, economic operation that have the certain size, implementation time and complexity. Therefore it is necessary to evaluate the reasonability and economic efficiency during the planning and design process to increase the efficiency of the system. The computer simulation technology could be used to solve the complex problems and rehearsal the rules and processes of the system and it also saves a lot of resource and costs. Since the management research objects are difficult to be quantified and the required data is not easy to be collected, it is hard to describe the relationship among the data only by the mathematical tools. Thus the simulation tools, which combine the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, could be used and the management recommendations are proposed based on the simulation results.After analyzing the comprehensive research achievements, this paper designs the urbanization simulation model for the case of Mutare in Africa, using the system dynamics software and based on object-oriented method for public policy analysis. First, we analysis the responsibility of various stakeholders in the urban system, and the factors those cause the urban slums. Secondly, we construct the index system that could be used to measure the levels of urbanization. Then, the system dynamic model is established, based on the investigation and data collection. It includes three sub-models and passes the model checking in order to guarantee its usability. After that, we analyze the impact of different policy experiments on the index by changing the controllable variables. Finally, we provide the recommendations to maintain the urbanization and solve the urban slums problem.This paper combines the simulation tools in the management science disciplines with the policy analysis theory and implements it into the urban decay case study. Thus this application of the method is analyzed more elaborate to stimulate the development of the computer simulation technology in the management fields.