Analysis Of Supply And Demand Of Rural Energy In Chongqing And Study On The Policies

For meeting energy demand, a lot of fuelwood and Straws are consumed in rural area of Chongqing. This unreasonable energy consumption has a severe impact on rural energy construction and is severe harmful for social, economic and environmental developement. For realizing the sustainable development,this paper models and forecasts the supply and the demand of the rural energy, then studies on the related policies.①It analyzes the rural energy resources in Chongqing .Chongqing is rich in hydropower,fecal and natural gas resources. This city is one of the least sunshine areas of china. Wind energy is deficient in Chongqing. However, in some mountain pass areas and valleys, the wind energy is rich.②It analyzes the status of the rural energy consumption in Chongqing. Energy consumption of rural households is more than energy consumption of agricultural production. The former is the most, above 70% of the whole energy consumption in rural areas of Chongqing. Firewood, coal and Straws are mainly used as the rural energy of Chongqing. According to correlation of the characteristic indices, 15 different counties in Chongqing rural area are divided into 3 regions by the clustering analysis. And the main characteristics of each region are discussed.③This paper models and forecasts the energy consumption in rural area of Chongqing.First, use Curve Estimation models to forecast the rural energy consumption of Chongqing. Afer Linear Regression failed, Curve Estimation is used. Compared 9 kinds of Nonlinear Regression Models with Cubic Model, the Cubic Model is proved effective and feasible. So this paper continues to predict the energy consumption in rural area of Chongqing in 2005-2010.Second, use BP ANN to model and predict the energy consumption in rural area of Chongqing. Proved BP ANN is also effective and feasible according to the proof-test , so this paper continues to predict the energy consumption in rural area of Chongqing in 2005-2010.Third, combined the Cubic Model and BP ANN is to model and predict the energy consumption in rural area of Chongqing. This combined model can synthesize the strongpoints of the Cubic Model and BP ANN, and improve the precision of...