Study On Dynamic Change And Trend Forecast Between Demographic Urbanization And Quantity Of Cultivated Land In Hubei

Hubei province is in the key stage of accelerating the economy development and demographic urbanization. To know the relation of demographic urbanization and the dynamic change of cultivated land is important to harmonize the contradiction of demographic urbanization development and cultivated land. It is also important to realize the sustainable development of Hubei province.According to the changing characteristics of demographic urbanization in Hubei from 1949 to 2005, the dissertation uses the ARMA model to forecast the demographic urbanization level from 2006 to 2015. The level wiil be 50 percent in 2010, 58 percent in 2015. It uses Logistic model to forecast the demographic urbanization level from 2016 to 2050. The level will be 60 percent in 2018, 70 percent in 2027, the development of demographic urbanization will be in the last stage, and the level will be 80 percent in 2037.At the same time, the dissertation analyse the driving forces of cultivated land change in the process of demographic urbanization by relevance analysis and principle component, the result shows the demographic urbanization development is one of the key driving forces.The study also shows that the rate conversion of cultivated land and the correlation of demographic urbanization and cultivated land changes as Kuznets curve at the process of demographic urbanization development in Hubei from 1949 to 2005. The dissertation forcasts the quantity of cultivated land, the results are the quantity of cultivated land will be 2,947,200 hm2 in 2010, and 2,765,700 hm2 in 2015. It forcasts the quantity of cultivated land per capita, the results are the quantity of cultivated land per capita will be 0.0511 hm2 in 2008, 0.0512hm2 in 2010, 0.054hm2 in 2015, these results show that the the quantity of cultivated land per capita will decrease first, then it will be increase. At the view of coordinated development, the coordination degree of demographic urbanization and cultivated land changes as coordinated-uncoordinated- coordinated from 1949 to 2005. The short time forecast of demographic urbanization level also shows the level will be accellarated at the rate of 3%, then the rate conversion of cultivated land is 0.6% at the fastest from 2006 to 2015, the demographic urbanization development and cultivated land will be at the coordinated state. In the end, it puts forward policy recommendations of solving the contradiction between demographic urbanization development and cultivated land protection in Hubei province.