Analysis On Risk Evaluation Of Western Urbanization Development

Urbanization is a complicated course in social changes, which concerns every aspect of economy and society. And the effect of urbanization development is restricted by the system of economy, social and natural environment to a large extent. Since reform and opening up, especially after the implementation of the western development strategy, western urbanization development has won great achievements, which effectively promotes the development of regional economy and society. However, there are a series of problems hindering behind urbanization developing, including misunderstanding of urbanization, the low programming level of urbanization, poor industrial support, deviation of urbanization strategy, serious land wasting and weak population accepting ability. Researching on western regional condition, we could find the reasons, which are weak economic strength, diseconomy of urban-rural arrangement, obstacle of laggard policies and institution, low population quality, fragile ecological environment and water resources shortage. Due to so many problems and restrictive factors, western urbanization developing risks are becoming more and more serious, which threat the sustainable development of urbanization. Therefore, scientifically analyzing and evaluating the risks and putting forward the prevention and control countermeasures are urgent requirements of promoting a healthy and orderly development of western urbanization.Firstly, basing on the research of the development status of western urbanization and related theories, this paper summarizes four kinds of urbanization developing risks, which include environmental risk, political risk, economic risk and social risk. Secondly, in order to clarify the fundamental design principle of evaluation index system, this paper puts forward a three-dimensional framework of indicator system, which involved three layers and four subsystems including economy, society, environment and politic amounted to 16 indicators, and counts the weight of risk evaluation index of western urbanization development by AHP. Thirdly, for scientifically testing the results of risk evaluation, standardization treatments are given on each index value and risk level assessments are set. Fourthly, the paper gives some measures for preventing and controlling the urbanization developing risk of western region.