Calculation And Impact Factors Analysis Of Carbon Emissions Transfer Among Provinces In China

With the rapid development of world economy, global warming problem is increasingly serious, and is the human environmental problems to be solved. To reduce greenhouse gases emissions is the common concern of the international community. China as the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, whether it is from the international obligation, or from the perspective of sustainable development, must control the rapid growth of the greenhouse gases emissions.. In order to realize our country’s emission reduction targets of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP decreased 40%～45% by 2020, it is necessary to clear the provinces of carbon emission reduction responsibility. In the allocation of carbon emission reduction responsibility, in addition to considering the actual carbon emissions in provinces, due to the continuous expansion of China’s provincial trade, the transfer of carbon emissions accompanied with provincial trade must also be considered. Based on the research results on the regional carbon emissions transfer both at home and abroad, this paper measures and analyzes the quantity and impact factors of carbon emissions transfer among 30 provinces in China, and gives the relevant policy recommendations.Firstly, this paper uses input-output analysis method to build a input-output model of inter provincial carbon emissions transfer, calculates the total and departmental component amount of 30 provinces’ carbon emissions transfer along with provincial trade in China in2007, and analyzes the scale of provincial carbon emissions transfer, the provincial differences, and the differences between departments. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions transfer among 30 provinces exist obvious difference. The provinces with higher net amount of carbon emissions output are mostly located in the northern region. Their resources endowment are high, and high energy consumption, high carbon emissions industries account for a large proportion; the provinces with higher net amount of carbon emissions input are mostly located in the Beijing and Tianjin, east coastal and south coastal areas. Their economic development level is high, and light industry and service industry are more developed, but the energy is relatively deficient. The department structure of carbon emissions transfer among 30 provinces also exist lager difference. For the Beijing and Tianjin, north coastal, east coastal and south coastal provinces and cities, the departments with higher net amount of carbon emissions output are mainly light textile industry, equipment manufacturing industry and services industry; the departments with higher net amount of carbon emissions input are mainly heavy chemical industry. For the northeast, central and western provinces and cities, the department structure of carbon emissions transfer are just opposite. In general, because of the differences among 30 provinces in terms of resources endowment, industrial structure, economic level and so on, the carbon emissions of our country is transferred from energy accumulation and energy intensive industries concentrated areas to economically developed regions and less developed areas where industrial structure is not perfect. So economically developed provinces and cities have a duty to help less developed provinces and cities of high energy consumption, high carbon emissions industries complete the carbon emissions reduction targets.Secondly, this paper uses the LMDI method to decompose net amount of carbon emissions output of 30 provinces in 2007 into technical effect, structure effect and scale effect, and makes a comparative analysis between provincial difference respectively from the level of production technology, inter provincial trade structure and provincial trade scale three aspects. The results show that contribution values of technical effect of all provinces have significant difference. The provinces and cities where contribution values are positive are mostly located in the central and western undeveloped areas; the provinces and cities where contribution values are negative are mostly located in the Beijing and Tianjin, east coastal and south coastal developed areas. Contribution values of structure effect of all provinces have obvious difference. The provinces and cities where contribution values are positive are mainly energy concentration, and high energy consumption industries concentrated areas; the provinces and cities where contribution values are negative are mainly low energy consumption industries and service industries more developed but energy relatively poor areas. Contribution values of scale effect of all provinces also have bigger difference. There is a positive correlation relationship between contribution values and net provincial trade amount. According to the research results, in the light of the characteristics of different provinces put forward the corresponding suggestions on energy saving and emission reduction.Finally, this paper uses SDA method to carry out impact factors decomposition on changes in carbon emissions output and changes in carbon emissions input in 30 provinces from 2002 to 2007, and analyzes the contribution degree of technical change effect reflected by changes in production technology level, structural change effect reflected by changes in provincial trade structure, and scale change effect reflected by changes in provincial trade scale, as well as the interprovincial difference of contribution degree in the same change effect. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions output (or input) of most provinces from 2002 to 2007 have different degrees of increase. Among them, technical change effect is the determining factor to restrain the total amount of carbon emissions output (or input) from increasing; structural change effect has less effect on the total amount of carbon emissions output (or input); scale change effect is the dominant factor to boost the growth of the total amount of carbon emissions output (or input). As the interprovincial trade scale expands unceasingly, scale change effect causes the total amount of carbon emissions output (or input) to increase significantly, and completely offset inhibitory effect on growth of the total amount of carbon emissions output (or input) because of production technology level’ improvement. A comparative analysis of 30 provinces’ change effect finds that contribution values of technical change effect of all provinces have lager difference, contribution values of structural change effect of all provinces have minor difference, and contribution values of scale change effect of all provinces have significant difference.