Research On Acquisition And Drawdown Policies For SPR Under Uncertainy

Oil is the key factor that a modern sociality can operate normally and develop sustainably. Theexploitation, utilization, transportation safety, stable supply and strategic reservation of oil directlyinfluence national security and economic development. At the end of last century, oil demand in Chinais booming due to the development of industrialization and urbanization. Oil shortage has become animportant factor that restricts the economic development. At present, the four bases in the first phaseof the strategic petroleum reservation have been finished all, and the second phase has begun. How toincrease the strategic petroleum reservation with minimize cost has attracted more and more attention.First, this paper establishes the granger causality test model based on the data from January1996to February2011. Results show that international crude oil price and oil imports exist the relationshipfrom international crude oil price to unidirectional oil imports causality and long-term stabilityequilibrium. In this background, this paper comprehensively reviews the key uncertain influencers ofstrategic oil reservation using the theory of system thinking, system dynamics and energy economics.Combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, this paper research on the margin and releasedecision under different scenes, considering demand, supply, price and its impact elasticity, supplydisruptions probability, the size and duration, economic development and import demand elasticity,production capacity, inventory ability and level, reserve scale and the technology. It not onlytheoretically enriches the research on the strategic petroleum reservation, but also provides a basis fordecision making in practically. It is helpful to the implementation and the realization of our strategicpetroleum reservation.