Study Of Improvised Decision-making Utilization On Serious Emergency

After the cold war, especially humans entering the new century, the number of unsure and unstable factors which impact national security, public safety, environmental safety are increasing day by day with the rapid development of economic globalization. Besides, natural disasters, accident disasters, public health events, together with social security incidents occurred frequently and influenced widely. Additionally, the degree of harm is also serious, which lead to a "risky society". From the "9.11" terrorist attacks in2001to "SARS" in2003, from the Indian Ocean tsunami that killed300000people in2004to hurricane Katrina that highlighted American racism in2005, from the storm that swept across China southern in early2008to "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake, all these are not only serious threat to the social public life, health and safety, but also challenge to government’s ability. When humans deal with such events, the existing knowledge can not fully interpret the mechanism of the incident and evolution. It is not able to grasp the overall changing trend about events. It is difficult to tackle with the emergencies in conventional way. What’s more, there is no appropriate method to solve the problem. Therefore, the improvised decision-making mode of serious emergencies will provide a new perspective and thought for the dealing of major emergencies.Based on the classification of improvised decision and decision-making mode of major emergencies, this paper makes an deep study about the application of improvised decisions which used by different decision levels in different events and stages. The main contents included are as the following:Firstly, summarizing the relevant research at home and abroad, this paper concludes six of "scenario-coping" on emergencies, and puts forwards the classified method of improvised decision-making mode. Furthermore, this thesis matches the "scenario-coping" with improvised decision-making mode. This part also sums up the different modes of improvised decision-making about major emergencies. Secondly, based on the decision model, this part classifies the modes of improvised decision-making which leaderships in different periods use. Analyzing the application of decisions that made by the first generation of core of leadership during the wartime, the paper gets that the first generation of core of leadership main adopt vision driving decision-making mode and elite decision-making mode. At the conclusion of major decisions made by the second generation of core of leadership according to the specific national conditional at that time, the second generation of core of leadership main use vision driving decision making mode and exploratory decision mode. At last, the paper concludes that the modern leaderships main adopt expert decision-making mode and heuristic decision-making mode in major emergencies in example of WangJialing mine and Wenchuan earthquake.Then, based on the classification of improvised decision-making mode, this part analyzes the choices of decision-making modes by the different decision levels in different events and stages combined with Wenchuan earthquake and Tangshan earthquake. The frequency and importance of different decision-making modes are also studied.Finally, according to the above studies, this part obtains the important role of decision support system (DSS) in improvised decision-making of major emergencies. Some corresponding policy suggestions are also given for the government to deal with major emergencies.According to all the studies on this paper, the author provides a new method to solve the serious emergencies quickly and correctly in the future, and fulfill the purpose that minimizes the loss of disasters. This paper also expects that the conclusion can provide a new mind to processing serious emergencies quickly in the future.