A Study On The Prediction Of Enterprise Safety Management Performance Based On System Dynamics

Enterprise safety management performance,as an important tool of measuring enterprise safety management system effect on overallsafety operation, reflects whether the enterprise safety management effect is good or bad, and represents the level of enterprise safety management.The research of safety management performance has been done for decades,both at home and abroad,majored in its definition,category,index system, evaluation methods and influence factors.Throughout most research of safety management performance,the common characteristic is that most focused on the static perspective, analyzed the safety management level of the present state, lacked forecast of what effect that safety decisions or activities can obtain in the future, and ignored the nonlinear function relationship between indictors when performance evaluated.This paper embarked from the perspective of system, dynamic and non-linear view,predicted the long-term trend of safety management level and provided scientific and reasonable basis for enterprise security decisions by exploring the enterprise safety management system operation mode and grasping the inherent law of safety management.System dynamics is a kind of system simulation method through the establishment of multivariable, nonlinearity,multiple feedback model reflecting the actual status based on system and dynamic angle,which is suitable for the research in this paper.Based on previous studies,the safety management performance index and effect relationship between indicators were acknowledged,The author builded up the enterprise safety management system causal loop diagrams and system dynamics flow diagram based on system dynamics principle to explain the mode of the enterprise safety management system.As well as the safety management performance prediction model to forcast enterprise safety management trend.At the same time,actual data was collected and analyzed by questionnaire and SPSS software,which the reliability and validity were verified the scientificity and reliability of questionnaire again.Through the contrast analysis between safety management performance simulation results and actual test results,The model has been corrected,which guaranteed the sciencificity and applicability in this study.By means of system dynamics prediction analysis, the following conclusions have been made:(1)As the enterprise safety management level has reached a certain degree, the growth rate showed a trend of gradually reduction,the escalation of commitment is hard to bring improvement significantly, which the safety input distribution on different elements need to reasonably adjust.(2) In the next two years,the ascension effect of safety culture to enterprise safety management system will be significantly higher than risk management and accident management.Among the indictors of safety culture,the ascension effect of management commitment,supervision and inspection,information communication and the safety management organization system will be significantly higher than the other factors.(3) The accept of practical action rate of indicator has been put forward,which reflects the dynamic and actual affect of the indicators to safety system, and concluded that the practical action rate of management commitment,supervision and inspection,information communication and safety management organization system will be higher compared with other elements in the next 2 years.