Research And Design Of Police Performance Appraisal System Based On Performance Forecast Model

With the depth development of supervision and appraisal integration amongTianjin Public Security Organs, it is of important significance to design and develop aPublic Performance Appraisal system with performance forecast function. On the onehand, the system can help to realize informatization and automation of performanceappraisal, and in this way we can improve work efficiency. On the other hand, theforecast function can contribute to find performance growth potential, thus helprelevant departments with decision-making.Firstly, the paper builds overall design, function models design and bracingmembers design of Public Performance Appraisal system. Secondly, according torealities of Tianjin public performance appraisal, the paper proposes a3-StageForecast Model(3-SFM), the3stages include index forecast, score calculation andperformance potential analysis. First, TS-GABPNN method is proposed to predictindex data. The method works like this: time series method is firstly used for trendprediction, then BP Neutral Network optimized by genetic algorithm is used forresidual prediction, at last, the previous two part are combined as final result. Theexperiment results shows that TS-GABPNN can forecast index data effectively, and isbetter than time series method and BP Neutral Network in prediction accuracy.Second, the paper designs and realizes a formula parsing engine for three-dimensionaldata,3-d-FPE for short.3-d-FPE is a platform for editing performance appraisalstandard formulas conveniently and calculating performance points effectively. Last,performance evaluation formulas and performance points forecasted are analyzedwith marginal analysis method, called performance growth potential analysis, andaccording to its result performance growth strategies are suggested for police organsrespectively.At present, the4.0system of Public Performance Appraisal has been widelyused in Tianjin police organs, besides the system runs stably and has achieved thedesired goal.