Research On The Factor Analysis Of Grain-production In Heilongjiang Province

To understand of grain production status, and clear constraints of food production, and explore the effective way to maintain the stable increasing of grain in Heilongjiang province in nearly30years, this article examined the influence factors of food production, basing on the relevant data of nearly30years in Heilongjiang province.The results are shown below.1By1983～2012grain production and current status of production in Heilongjiang province, the analysis shows:Before2003,the total grain output was rising state which continued to grow in recent years and reached57.615million tons in2012. Grain acreage continues to expand, which amounted to13.942million hectares in2012. Effective irrigation area continues to expand, which amounted to35.1%in2012.The planting structural has a larger change. Chemical fertilizer and pesticide usage per unit area is stable; Agricultural professionals is reducing;Agricultural machinery total power continuously improve;The affected area of nearly30years an average of52.7%, annual fluctuation is bigger.2Basing on the quantitative by AHP using accumulation factor to evaluate weight, and mading a comprehensive evaluation on the agricultural science and technological progress level of Heilongjiang Province from1986to2011, the results showed the progress level was significantly increased, it was2.5points in1986and rose to96.9points in2011.The average annual was51points and the average annual growth rate was3.56points. The agricultural science and technological progress level of Heilongjiang province had a well development.3By factor analysis method of ten factors affecting index on t grain production and contribution rate, the results show that the positive factors of contribution rate is scientific and technological progress of grain production level (38.10%)> grain planting area (28.23%)> total power of agricultural machinery (15.67%)> rice planting proportion (13.71%)> maize planting proportion (12.69%)> chemical fertilizer usage (12.13%)> soybean planting proportion (9.20%)> wheat planting proportion (8.91%);negative factors is the inundated area to the affected area ratio (-20.10%)> agricultural workers (-17.24%).4If the total grain output holds such a stable growth, it will achieve92.137%growth in2025, which will reach110.696million tons. Based on the analysis of the various factors of grain production of Heilongjiang province, this growth is possible.As the long term, the expansion of cultivated land will become more and more difficult, but there is a certain space. To improve yield by increasing investment in science and technology, thus improve the total grain output will be the main way for grain production in the future and natural disaster is the biggest obstacle of grain production in Heilongjiang province. Finally according to the research results and the actual production in Heilongjiang province put forward some proposals for future production food. In order to improve the food production, we think should be in in variety improvement and promotion, to strengthen the construction of water conservancy, agriculture, technology updates and promotion, improve the quality of the labor force and promote large-scale production five aspects to strengthen the work.