Research On The Transportation Policy Simulation Of Energy Saving And Emission Reduction Based On System Dynamics

The issue of global energy shortage and environmental pollution is becoming increasingly serious, almost all countries in the world have been carrying out related researches about environmental and energy conservation. The corresponding targets and policy about the energy conservation and emissions reduction are also be formulated. China has also made specific energy conservation and emissions reduction targets which is actively introduced in various industries. With the rapid growth of passenger and cargo traffic volume, transportation industry has been one of China’s three major carbon source industries and its influence on energy and environment is growing. All these factors enforce the transportation industry become a key industry in energy saving and emission reduction. Through the policy simulate of energy saving and emissions reduction in transportation field, the thesis can provides theoretical reference for transportation industry to achieve the success of energy conservation and emissions reduction.Firstly, Based on the in-depth research of background and theory about transportation industry, the paper established the causal relationship between variables elements of transportation, economy and energy emissions. Secondly, qualitative and quantitative methods were combined to identify the equations and parameters in causal relationship model, and system dynamic model is built to analyze the energy saving and emission reduction policy for transportation industry in China. Finally, after the analysis of the energy saving and emission reduction policy for transportation industry in China, the paper use a cycle over the period from 2013 to 2020 to make single policy simulation and combined policy simulation. After comparative analysis of the policy implementation effect, policy suggestions were put forward.The single policy simulation results show that the adjustment of industry structure and transportation energy structure have a significant effect on energy conservation and emission reduction. The increase of proportion of tertiary industry can reduce the growth of cargo transportation demand, eventually decrease the energy consumption and CO2 emission. Optimize the structure of transport by reducing highway proportion, the effect energy consumption and CO2 emission reduction can be improved dramatically.Besides, The rapid development of electrified railway can promote the energy conservation and emissions reduction of railway transportation. The increase of energy efficiency of road transportation and air transportation is effective to energy conservation and emission reduction, The increase of LNG consumption and environmental protection input in the short term don’t have an obvious effect. The simulation results of policy combination indicate that CO2 emission target of transportation industry in 2020 can be realized under different economic situation.According to the policy simulation results, the energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation industry should focus on the adjustment of industry structure, transportation structure and energy structure, technical research should actively carry out the technical research to promote the technical progress of the various modes of transportation. Finally, the CO2 emission target of transportation industry can be realized by applying combination policy.