Sensitivity Analysis On Residents Travel Mode Choice Problems With Taxi Pricing Policy

The development of Taxi Industry becomes more and more important to every department, Beijing Province changed the Taxi Price in2013. To study the effect of the new price policy, this paper divided the factors which influence residents travel mode choice into four types:personal characters, area characters, transportation characters (including distance, time and expenses) and special factors, extracted related indicators, and quantized the factors with the statistical data. Then we proposed a model which can simulate residents travel mode:input population information, distribution of income, number of private car and average traffic per day, through the algorithm pool, output transportation structure of the society. This paper simulated the transportation structure in2012and2013, after comparison with data released by Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission, we found that the model’s credibility is over90%. This paper explored the sensitivity of taxi share rate under different taxi price policies. We started from the adjustment of single price part (starting price, basic rents, expenses under low speed and fuel surcharge), through the model and analysis, we proposed the suitable price range:starting price is13-16Yuan, basic rents is2.3-2.6Yuan, low speed expense is basic rents of1～3times, fuel surcharge is dynamic, now it’s1Yuan. Next this paper simulated the share rate of taxi under different conditions with different distance and jam time, we proposed:the share rate of the taxi decrease average0.23%when expense increase1Yuan under old policy whose starting price is10Yuan; the share rate of the taxi decrease average0.15%when expense increase1Yuan under new policy whose starting price is13Yuan. The results show that the model this paper proposed can simulate residents travel mode choice and transportation’s structure well and is credible and has a realistic significance.