Study On Urban Affordable Housing Scale In Jiangxi Province

With the deepening of the reform of our country's housing system in the past few years, the housing market has developed rapidly. Due to the increasingly rising of the housing prices, the housing problems of the low-income groups become more and more outstanding. Our government figured out that in order to satisfy the lowincome families' demand of housing, we need to establish a housing system that combined both of the market disposition and the government security. Our primer Li Keqiang talked about the target of the affordable housing project in his report on government work of 2015: to construct 7.4 million affordable houses, including 5.8 million houses of shantytown transformation. In his report on government work of 2016, he stressed again about the promoting of the construction of the urban affordable housing and the improving of the housing security system. It's enough to see that our government has really paid high attention to the housing problems.On the basis of the analysis about the present situation of the affordable housing in Jiang Xi, this paper studied the influential factors of the scale of the affordable housing of Jiang Xi by using the gray correlation analysis method. Then it reached the conclusion that the main influential factors were: per capita GDP?completed size of housing?urbanization rate urban population?per capita living space?per capita disposable income?per capita housing spending?commodity housing prices?per capita financial income and the real estate investment. Then this paper predicted the scale of urban affordable housing in Jiangxi by using the model GM(1,1)of gray system and the BP network model. And it proved that the supply and demand contradictions of the affordable housing would still exist in the next few years. Finally, this paper suggests that, we should build a new affordable housing supply policy system, adopting the monetary subsidies, broadening the sources of capital, establishing a wide range of financing channels, improving the management system of the urban affordable housing.