Study On Risk Identification Of Unconventional Emergency Based On Immune Complex System

Risk identification of unconventional emergency is one of the key scientific issues in emergency management. As a result of theoretical study and practical applications often faced with ‘Weak Casebased Simulation', risk identification has become an urgent challenge. Inspired by biological immune system, the integration of artificial immune system, complex systems, chaos theory and computer technology can be applied into risk identification method for unconventional emergency.The full text can be divided into four parts, including eight chapters.The first part is the introduction, which introduces the research purpose, research significance, research situation at home and abroad and the technical research route and method. The second part is mainly the theory base and model building, including chapter 2, 3, 4. Chapter 2 establishes the unconventional emergency associated with immune complex system mapping. Chapter 3 establishes speciality gene pool from the underlying data structure. Chapter 4 establishes multiple unconventional emergency risk identification models aiming to solve the problem of different requirements on identifying different early warning. The third part is mainly simulation and the computational experiments, including chapter 5 and 6. Chapter 5 obtains immune response characteristics, energy difference, evolution curve, information distinct and risk distribution as standard identification by simulating models. Chapter 6 conducts case simulations by the fire incident for verifying scientificity and applicability of the models proposed. The forth part is composed by chapter 7 and chapter 8. Chapter 7 proposes some suggestions on improving risk identification system for China's emergency management. Chapter 8 is the summary of full paper, innovation instructions and research prospects. The innovations mainly can be summarized as following three points:(1) The mapping framework of unconventional risk identification and immune complex system, which will enhance emergency managementFrom the view of fusion of multiple disciplines among complex system theory, immunology and management, a new ‘scenario- response' risk identification and evaluation method of of unconventional emergency is explored. The mapping between unconventional risk identification system and biological immune system is conducted. Considering practical situation of emergency management system construction in China, a national emergency unconventional risk identification system is built concisely.(2) The specialty gene pool of unconventional emergency, which will provide technical support for emergency data monitoring platformCombined with the characteristics of unconventional emergencies, the specialty gene pool of unconventional emergency is built based on the necessity analysis. In the meanwhile, structure assumptions and construction method from chaotic mapping are explored. Combined with the biological immune system evolution, the evolution process of unconventional emergency gene pool is analyzed.(3) The risk identification models for unconventional emergency, which will provide models support for emergency early warning platformMultiple risk identification models of unconventional emergency are establishd based on the integration of emergency management, immunology, complex system theory and computer technology, with help of ‘scenario- response' research. The models include Multi-Agent risk identification model, energy evolution model, information classification model and danger signal model. Through simulations on these models, a comprehensive quantitative interpretation of unconventional emergency is summarized.