Study Of Coupling Relationship Among Cropland, Food And Population Of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Based On The Econometric Analysis

With the cropland resource decreased dramatically, the population growing and the continuous urbanization development in China, which caused the public attention. The study of the coupling relations between population, cropland, food can have important theoretical and practical significance on the problem of food security in China and provided the scientific basis and reference on promoting coordinated development of regional social and economic sustainable and healthy.On the basis of the predecessors' research results, with the relationship among total grain output, cultivated land resources quantity and population as the breakthrough point, and based on the analysis of the dynamic relationship among the three, using the econometric analysis method which is commonly used in economics to Poyang Lake ecological economic zone of the relationship among total grain output, cultivated land resources quantity and size of population to make a interaction empirical research, then analyze the Poyang Lake ecological economic zone of the food security situation. the main conclusions are as follows:(1) During the study period, total grain output shows a fluctuant rising trend over time. In the early stage, the change width was much more large but maintained a steady growth after 2004. The change trend of the cropland quantity over time is that, in 1992-2003, the cropland quantity was falling slowly, in 2003-2013, the cropland quantity gradually increased and the general variation was smaller. The change trend of the population was gradually increasing over time and the growth rate was slow, and the variation was smallest in cropland,food and population. The conclusion of the change in spatial pattern of food, cropland and population is that the cropland,food and population of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone distribut concentratly in Feng Cheng to Poyang and some cities in the line. The cropland,food and population gradually decrease in the northwest and southeast of the line, and the distribution in the northwest is lowest. From the moving of the gravity center, the gravity center in the zone of cropland,food and population is moving to cities in the east. The phenomenon shows that the cropland,food and population in the east is gradually increasing in the zone.(2) This paper mainly study the relationship changing between the total grain output, cropland resources quantity and population change from 1992 to 2013 through econometric analysis method. Firstly directly stability test on the three variables of the original sequence, proving these variables are not smooth. Then must do the difference test again, this test result conforms to the request of stability test, proving these three are same order integration and showing that three non-stationary time series it is possible to exist between the long-term stable equilibrium relationship and then study JJ cointegration test on the three variables, carried out a conclusion that a long-term equilibrium relationship is possible between grain output, number of cropland resources, and population. Secondly Granger causality test, proved that the population change is the Granger reason of cropland resources quantity and the total grain output between 1992 and 2013 the population of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone. In order to quantitatively study the interaction relationship between them, finally using the vector error correction model, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis method on the further analysis and forecasting, coming out the impact of the change of total grain output is greater than the number of cultivated land resource change on the impacts of food production. But over time, the impact of cropland resource to grain output will wane; Population quantity change will has a negative impact of cropland land resources quantity change.(3) Based on coupling relationship among cropland,food and population of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone, in order to guarantee the food security of the Poyang Lake ecological economic zone, and promote sustained ? healthy and coordination development of regional social and economic, this paper puts forward the following Suggestions: strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure, consolidate the cultivated land balance policy, equal the importance of cropland quantity and quality; control population growth, improve population quality; raise the enthusiasm of farmers to plant.