A Simulation Study About The Impact Of Promotion Rate On GDP Under Demographic Change

With the rapid development of economic science and technology and the arrival of knowledge economy,our country puts forward the "science and education" strategy in the last century.Nowadays,knowledge has become another factor in the production of society.Science and technology are constantly transformed into real productive forces,and the key factor what drives the development of science and technology and what makes it work is man.In the past 30 years,our country's rapid population growth momentum has been effectively controlled,the population growth rate decreases,but at the same time the proportion of the elderly population continues to increase,the proportion of the labor force began to decrease,making our country into the population aging period prematurely,The demographic dividend is declining or even disappearing.In the economic growth,in addition to material capital investment,human capital also plays an important role.And education can improve labor productivity,improve the level of labor skills,and this is an important way to improve the total amount of human capital.Under the reality of our country,it has great theoretical and practical significance to study the effect of population and education on economic growth.This paper aims to analyze the history and current situation of the interaction between population,education and economic growth in our country,and explore the impact of future changes in population structure and changes in education on the economy.In order to study the relationship between population,education and economy,this paper draws up the causal diagram of population,education and economy based on the research of system dynamics,and establishes the system dynamics model to study the present situation of population structure and labor force and the trend of development in the next future 30 years.By controlling the enrollment rate of children and different levels' promotion rate of education to study the rate of enrollment in the number of students in the level of education,and then get our per capita years of education.Using the per capita education period and the labor force population to represent human capital(labor education capital),to find the relationship between it and the economy.Finally,the simulation shows the development trend of future GDP under different fertility level and different enrollment rate.It is found that the increase of population growth and education level has a certain effect on GDP growth rate.Then,according to the simulation results proposed relevant policy recommendations.