Research On The Path Of Carbon Emission Reduction In The Iron And Steel Industry In Jilin Province Based On The LEAP Model

In recent years,global warming mainly caused by greenhouse gas emissions by human activities has become the major environmental problem and challenge in the international society.The iron and steel industry,as one of the major CO₂ emission sources in China,has great potential for carbon emission reduction.As one of the northeast old industrial bases and national high carbon zones,the steel industry in Jilin province also has great potential for energy saving and emissions reduction,it's particularly important to put forward the objective and specific industrial adjustment and carbon emission reduction policies for promoting the coordinated development of energy,environment and regional economy in the iron and steel industry.The energy consumption and CO₂ emission of iron and steel industry in Jilin Province was taken as the research object in this paper,combined with the econometric method,constructing the LEAP forecasting model of iron and steel industry life cycle energy consumption and carbon emission in Jilin Province,setting the parameters of the benchmark scenario,the new policy scenario and low-carbon scenario.Based on the quantitative results,the single factor analysis was carried out to identify the main factors affecting the system.Then further considered and evaluate the specific energy saving and low-carbon technologies to clear priorities for the application of the technologies for the iron and steel industry in Jilin Province,finally formulated specific action strategies for steel industry low carbon development.The research results show that:1.During “the twelfth five-year plan” period,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the steel industry reached peak in 2013,falling to the minimum value in 2015 with a significant drop.2.From the point of view of production process adjustment,the energy consumption in the benchmark scenario reaches peak in 2020,which is 7.01 Mtce,that in the new policy scenario and low-carbon scenario decrease from 2015 year by year,compared with 6.94 Mtce in base year,the energy saving rates in 2030 are 6%,13% and 20%,respectly,thus low-carbon scenario is more suitable for the sustainable development of Jilin iron and steel industry.Similar to energy consumption,the carbon emission peak in the benchmark scenario appears in 2020,which is 17.58 Mt,while the new policy scenario and low-carbon scenario carbon emission decrease,compared with the base year,CO₂ emission reduction rates of three scenarios are 7%,11% and 16%.When evaluating scrap recirculation,compared with the long process,short process producing per unit of electric steel can reduce energy consumption by 0.53 tce with energy saving rates for 76%,CO₂ emission by 1.17 t,which emission reduction rate is 68%.3.When single factor analysis were carried out,the result shows that the positive influence degree of crude steel output,blast furnace energy intensity,iron and crude steel ratio,large-scale hot-rolling equipment proportion,hot rolling energy intensity,sintering energy intensity,large-scale converter and sintering equipment proportion on the carbon emission decrease orderly;large-scale blast furnace proportion,electric furnace proportion,crude steel and steel ratio,blast furnace and cold rolling proportion have decreasingly negative impact on carbon emission.4.When considering the specific energy-saving and low-carbon technologies,it is found that technological introduction can play a more important role in the energy saving and emissions reduction than structural adjustment in the iron and steel industry.Compared with the conventional structural adjustment,the energy saving rates of three scenarios in 2030 are 16%,29% and 38%,respectively,and the CO₂ emission reduction rates are 17%,25% and 33%.Faced with the current existing problems of the iron and steel industry in Jilin Province,based on single factor analysis and energy saving-low carbon technology assessment,the path of CO₂ emission reduction o is as follows:?1?Give priority to encouraging "Scrap-electric furnace" short process production in the iron and steel complex,improving the electric furnace electricity efficiency and large-scale proportion;?2?In "Iron ore-converter" long process,it is recommended to give priority to reducing excess capacity,improving the process level of blast furnace ironmaking and reducing iron and crude steel ratio;?3?When considering negative influence,we must focus on promoting large-scale blast furnace and electric furnace process level and energy efficiency;?4?Considering energy-saving and low-carbon technologies,more precedence should attached to the important skills such as Boiler of pure firing blast furnace gas,Combined low calorific value gas cycling for power generation,Top combustion stove with high blast temperature for blast furnace and Energy management center for large and medium enterprises.The research on the path of carbon emission reduction in the iron and steel industry can provide theoretical basis and action guide for policymakers to formulate low-carbon developmental policy for iron and steel industry and long-term strategies to deal with climate change,also accelerate industrial ecologicalization and promote regional economy transformation in Jilin Province as soon as possible.