| Along with the social progress and rapid development of economy,the traditional procreation conception has quietly changed,having fewer eugenics has gradually become a new fashion,at present has entered the nott Stan(Notestein)third stage of the demographic transition,namely"low birth,death,growth stage,"country"and"aging"has become the new characteristics of China's population structure change.The coordinated sustainable development of population,economic growth and social progress has been recognized by all countries in the world and become the core of human social health progress and sustainable development.To achieve sustainable development,we must first solve the population problem,because population is the premise of development,is the main body of development,the development process will have a certain impact on each stage.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out the demographic structure characteristics and its sustainable development evaluation research and analysis,in order to promote the sustainable development of population to provide scientific theoretical basis.Through the spot check data of Fujian statistical yearbook,2015 1%population and the population census data,collected from 2000 to 2018 in fujian province 19 years population data,using the data of population structure of Fujian province and its sustainable development research,mainly from the population natural structure,social structure,the structure of the ground source to analyze the current situation of the population structure of Fujian province and its change rule,in the Fujian population structure change and sustainable development index system is analyzed.The index system of Fujian's sustainable population development is divided into four subsystems,namely population subsystem,economic subsystem,resource subsystem and social subsystem.Arcgis software,neural network algorithm and statistical software were used to study the spatial structure,time structure and forecast of population in Fujian province.Meanwhile,the index system of sustainable development of population in Fujian province was obtained by using principal component analysis and weighted by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the effects of different population sustainable development indexes on population sustainable development in Fujian province are discussed to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the indexes.The results show that in the changes of population structure in Fujian,(1)The change of sex ratio of the total population is small.In2000,the sex ratio of the total population in Fujian is 102.67,and in 2018it is 104.73.(2)The proportion of the elderly population continues to increase.From 2000 to 2018,the proportion of the population aged over65 in the total population of Fujian was always higher than 7%of the international standard for aging society.In 2018,the proportion of the elderly population reached 9.4,indicating a serious aging population.(3)The educational quality of the population is gradually increasing.In 2018,the illiteracy rate of the population aged 15 or above in Fujian is only6.72%.(4)The trend of population industrialization is obvious.In 2000,the proportion of workers in the primary industry was 72.9%;in 2018,it was only 21%.(5)Natural resources are well protected,but per capita resources are insufficient.In 2018,per capita water resources in Fujian decreased by 1992.57 cubic meters/person compared with 2000;(6)The divorce ratio increased year by year,and the marriage population decreased year by year,reaching 33.74 in 2018;(7)Although the GDP index keeps growing,the trend of growth has stagnated,and the index growth rate has been negative since 2014;(8)The per capita medical structure develops well,and the demand for endowment insurance increases;(9)The urbanization trend of population is increasing,and the rural population is decreasing.In 2018,the urban population of Fujian increased by 590,000,while the rural population decreased by 290,000,indicating that most of the increased population is inflow from other provinces.(10)The population density is uneven,and the trend of population gathering in coastal cities is more and more obvious.In 2018,the average population density of Fujian was 324.63 people/km~2,but Xia Men,the most densely populated city,had a population density of2,634 people/km2,while Nanping city had only 102 people/km~2,a strong contrast between the two cities.In the indicator system of sustainable population development in Fujian,(1)Despite the stable development of population factors,there is still the problem of uneven population structure development.The score of sustainable population development in 2018 is only 19.737,lower than that in 2017.(2)The overall development of the economic subsystem is good,with the highest score among the whole population sustainable development system.The score in 2017 is 26.820,which is the highest in18 years.(3)The social development is in good condition.Since 2009,it has maintained a stable growth.The most important factor affecting the sustainable development of the population society is the disposable income of urban residents;(4)In the subsystem of environmental resources,the index with the largest influence factor is forest coverage rate,and the weight is 0.499.The overall utilization is good,but the per capita resource ownership decreases.(5)According to the comprehensive score,the index system score of Fujian's population sustainable development in 2018 is 79.391,among which the economic subsystem score is 26.518,playing a decisive role.Based on the change characteristics of Fujian's population structure and the theory of sustainable development,the future population development strategy of Fujian is put forward.(2)Balance the sex ratio of population;(3)Improve the social pension system;(4)Establishing systems and mechanisms for the harmonious development of population and ecology;(5)Continue to promote the development of population quality education and ultimately promote the sustainable development of fujian's population structure. |
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