Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure On A Country's GVC Positions

The positions of global value chains(GVCs)measures a nations' s profitability in the production activities of GVCs.At the national level,there are numerous factors affecting the GVC positions,and the population included.In the context of China's current aging population,has China's activities in the global value chain been negatively affected? Therefore,from a macro perspective to analyze the impact of population age structure on the positions of a country's global value chain is conducive to clarify this relationship.Firstly this paper calculates “Koopman's "GVC positions" index to measure a country's position in global value chain.Following that it also applies the "Moore structure index" to this paper to measure a country's population age structure change rate,and further analyzes a country's population change by combining it with a country's child support ratio,the elderly's support ratio and the labor force ratio.In the empirical part,the fixed effect model and instrumental variable method are used to study the influence of population age structure and its alteration on GVC positions index from a perspective of factor endowment and institution.It can be seen from the results that the age structure of a country's population has no significant impact on its GVC positions index,while the proportion of children's support and the proportion of the elderly's support have a positive effect,and the increase of the proportion of labor force will significantly inhibit the country's positions on global value chain.Separating the total sample into two groups by income level found that the influence of population age structure on GVC positions within high-income countries and middle and lowincome countries is heterogeneous.On the other hand,there also exists a non-linear relationship.The results of dynamic panel and differential GMM method reveal that GVC position index in a country has a significant "stock promotion" effect.In addition,this paper also uses the mechanism of intermediary effect to test several influence paths assumed in this paper,and finds that the age structure of population has intermediary effects on consumption,savings and factor prices in the value chain.Based on the results of the above empirical research,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as increasing the investment in education,improving the cultivation and utilization of scientific research,improving the cooperation mechanism of "industry university research",drawing up sound and reasonable promotion policies in fertility,and strengthening the leading role of the government in the provision of public services and infrastructure construction.