| With the rapid development of national social economy,local governments and relevant departments continue to strengthen the scientific planning and rational allocation of land resources.By increasing the investment of land funds,strictly controlling the conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural use and related management measures,we can solve the contradiction of land use between various industries and fields,meet the needs of infrastructure construction,develop industry and service industry,renovate the urban landscape,and meet the land needs of rural residents,thus providing conditions for the rapid development of social economy.Thai Binh City of Vietnam is in an important period of integration into the international community.In recent years,the acceleration of urban industrialization and modernization has put forward new requirements for the reform of various land use organizations.The government needs to formulate more reasonable land use planning measures to meet the needs of people for urban infrastructure construction,expansion of industrial zones,development of tourism services and improvement of social welfare.Therefore,it is more important to formulate reasonable land use planning to meet future land use needs in various fields.In addition,the government also needs to gradually change part of agricultural land into non-agricultural land according to the plan,in order to achieve the coordinated development of urban land and the progress of regional economy.The forecasting model of land use demand in Thai Binh City in 2020 is established on the basis of the following quantitative indicators:the current situation of land use planning in Thai Binh City from 2005 to 2018;the indicators of social,economic and environmental development;and the output data are the area of various types of land in Thai Binh City in 2020.This paper uses excel's forecastsheet method combined with optimization model to predict future results based on current and past values.The paper draws the following four conclusions:(1)Thai Binh City,located in the Hong River Plain,is a huge food and food production area.Ecological and natural conditions make agriculture develop smoothly and comprehensively;the structure of animals and plants is rich and diverse;and aquatic breeding has also developed.Thai Binh City has the advantages of reasonable administrative boundary,flat terrain,convenient communication and relatively developed rural infrastructure structure.The relatively convenient land and water transportation network has a driving effect on goods exchange between Thai Binh City and other provinces in the region and Vietnam.However,in recent years,although Taiping's infrastructure construction has been concerned and improved,there are still poor conditions and lack of synchronization.Thai Binh City has just been established,but it still encounters many difficulties in its development process.(2)Over the past 18 years,Thai Binh economic institutions have gradually developed towards industrialization and modernization,and the demand for urban non-agricultural land has been increasing.The area of non-agricultural land increased from 1623.48 hectares in 2000 to 4097.03 hectares in 2018,with an average annual increase of nearly 138 hectares.Agricultural land has been gradually reduced for urban industrialization and modernization.Residential land area increased by 698.34 hectares,an average increase of 39 hectares per year,especially 257.86 hectares from 2015 to 2018.For special-purpose land,there has been an increase of 1726.79 hectares in the past 18 years because of the increasing investment funds in cities,which has increased the demand for special-purpose land in Thai Binh.(3)The deviation between Thai Binh land use area prediction method in 2020 and the overall planning approved by the city is small(about 0.5-5%).The following three types of land have high deviations:perennial crop land and other agricultural land.The deviation does not mean that there is a problem in the research direction.The above model is adopted to satisfy the following two objectives at the same time:optimizing the economic benefits of land use and optimizing the work.One of the reasons for such a high deviation is that the overall urban planning was formulated in 2015,which is based on the annual land use changes,while the economic interests and the work of farmers have not been paid attention to.This is only the direction of future planning.(4)Thai Binh City and Vietnam should continue to study the relationship and interaction between land use planning change and economic structure change under the background of globalization and economic integration,scientific and technological progress,so as to have an overall demand for land use under the new situation.Especially in agricultural land types,aquaculture land is changed to non-agricultural land. |
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