The Coordinated Development Stage Of Population And Land Urbanization And Its Influencing Factors

In recent years,the urbanization of China is improving,the number of cities has continued to increase,and the scale of cities has continued to expand.The urbanization rate in China has increased from approximately 17% during the period of reform and opening up to 59.58% today,with an average annual growth rate of 1.04%.The rapid growth rate of urbanization has also brought inefficient use of land resources in some areas,rapid expansion of urban land use,lack of population concentration,and resources and social problems such as “ghost towns” and “empty cities”.These problems can all be explained from the study of the relationship between population and land urbanization.Therefore,studying the coordination and interaction between population urbanization and land urbanization is conducive to ensuring the overall quality of the integrated urbanization system and has important practical value.System coupling theory and green development theory,this paper constructs an evaluation index system that can reasonably represent population urbanization and land urbanization,and builds a dual-system uncoupled evaluation model based on this.In 2016,the population-land urbanization level in 31 provinces across the country and the level of coordination between the two were measured.The k-means algorithm is used to analyze the coordination level of population-land urbanization in each province,divide the different stages of the coordinated development of population-land urbanization,and use grey correlation analysis to correlate the influencing factors of different stages of coordinated development.The analysis of degree size discriminates the main factors and secondary factors that affect the coordinated development of urbanization at different stages.The main conclusions are as follows :1.The level of Population-land urbanization The gap between provinces is large.By constructing an indicator system and evaluation model for the coordinated development of population-land urbanization and using the main level analysis method to determine the index weights,the urban-to-land level of 31 provinces from 2007 to 2016 and the degree of coordinated development between the two were obtained..Looking at the development of urbanization in 31 provinces,it can be concluded that the highest level of population urbanization is in Beijing,with an index of 0.9432,and the lowest index in the Tibet Autonomous Region is only 0.4102.The highest urbanization index is Zhejiang,reached 0.9822,while Heilongjiang had only 0.48;the highest level of coordinated development of population-land urbanization was in Shanghai in ten years,while in Guizhou,because the population urbanization lags behind the urbanization of land,the average level of the coordination level is lower.2.The results of cluster analysis of the coordinated development stage of population-land urbanization are consistent with the actual situation.Based on the 10 year coordination of 31 provinces,a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the current stage of the coordinated development of population-land urbanization in China.Finally,it is determined that can be divided into three phases.The first stage mainly includes four provinces of Heilongjiang,Qinghai,Guizhou,and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region with low level of coordination,and the second is includes Hebei,Zhejiang,Fujian,Jilin,Guangxi,Anhui,Jiangxi,Henan,Hunan and Sichuan.In the 13 provinces of Yunnan,Tibet and Shaanxi,the third stage is mostly Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Liaoning,Jiangsu,Shandong,Guangdong,Hainan,Shanxi,and Inner Mongolia,where China's economic strength is more developed and population-land urbanization is more coordinated.Hubei,Chongqing,Gansu,and Xinjiang.3.The influence factors of the coordinated development stage of different population-land urbanization.The degree of association is determined by the gray correlation degree.Because different stages include differences in the level of urbanization in the provinces,the main influencing factors in each stage are different.The main factors in the first stage of the development of a low level of coordination are the per capita built-up area,the per capita housing area of cities and towns and the Engel's coefficient.The factors are the non-agricultural industry employees and the Engel's coefficient.And the number of doctors per 10,000 people,in the third stage of the degree of coordination with the level of higher Engel's coefficient,urban per capita housing area and non-agricultural population ratio.4.Based on the influencing factors at different stages,specific policy recommendations are proposed.According to the differences in the impact factors of different stages,the actual situation of the 31 provinces is proposed to promote the sustainable and coordinated development of the urban population of the future population.The main recommendations are as follows :1.The four provinces in the first stage of population-land coordinated development have special resource advantages,such as the tourism resources of Qinghai and Guizhou,the geographical location of Ningxia and Heilongjiang,and the provinces under this stage can use resources to promote the level of urbanization.2.In the second phase,the provinces are mostly located in the central and western parts of China,and can be divided into the eastern,central and western regions according to their geographical location.In the development of the eastern provinces,we must pay attention to controlling the expansion speed of construction land,paying attention to the development of population urbanization,adhering to the people-oriented concept,breaking the identity restrictions of urban and rural dual household registration,and improving the social welfare of the people;The urbanization development of the province should pay attention to controlling the excessive development of land urbanization and speed up the development of population urbanization;the overall idea of urbanization development in the western provinces is to focus on improving the urbanization level of the population and taking into account the development of land urbanization,thus reaching the populationCoordinated development of land urbanization.3.The third stage of the coordinated development of population-land urbanization is divided into municipalities,higher,medium and lower levels according to economic strength.The municipality will affect the development of urbanization due to different urban orientation.The city positioning can be considered more reasonably;the provinces with higher economic strength are mainly located in the eastern coastal areas.It is necessary to pay attention to speeding,and constantly improve the social security system while rationally controlling the excessive development of land urbanization;It is necessary to improve the level of urbanization of the population and control the excessive development of land urbanization;on the basis of ensuring the coordinated development,lower-level provinces should continuously improve economic strength and city scale,and achieve low-level coordination to medium-high coordination.