Research On The Forecast Of Container Volume And The Choice Of Transportation Mode Between China And Europe Considering Government Subsidies

With the Belt and Road initiative continuous expansion and deepening,the total import and export trade between China and Europe has been steadily increasing,and the container transport between China and Europe has also ushered in an unprecedented development opportunity.As a new mode of container transportation,the rapid development of CR Express brings new transportation options for goods.Compared with the sea-land multimodal transportation with low transportation cost,CR Express has the characteristics of short transportation time and high efficiency,but the transportation cost is higher.Therefore,under the requirements of reasonable transportation,goods with different value characteristics will have different transportation modes suitable for them.For this reason,this article mainly discusses the choice of different modes of transportation for container goods with different value characteristics under the condition of considering government subsidies,and puts forward the optimization method of transportation mode selection based on problem orientation,which has good pertinence for practical problems.Based on the time value theory of goods and the value characteristics of different goods,this paper classifies the goods,and introduces the container operation organization process of CR Express and sea-land combined transportation.Secondly,taking the elements of transport fee,transport time,subsidy and the time value of freight transport as the decision-making factors of container transportation mode selection,this paper constructs the container transportation volume prediction model and the container transportation mode selection model considering government subsidy.For the problems studied in this paper,four kinds of main goods exported from Dalian to Europe are taken as the research objects,and the suitable transportation modes of the four kinds of goods are analyzed by genetic algorithm.According to the analysis results,based on the different subsidies,this paper puts forward the selection scheme of China-EU container cargo transportation route for different cargo categories,which provides a reference basis for decision-making of freightage.