Research On Employment Effect Of Industrial Structure Upgrading In China

In 2012,China’s economic growth rate dropped to below 8%,and since then,the overall trend has been downward.In 2018,the economic growth rate has dropped to 6.6%,which means that China’s economy has moved from a high growth rate to a medium-high growth rate.In this process,technological progress and the improvement of labor productivity promote the continuous optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure,which is bound to have an impact on employment.As the most populous country in the world,employment has always been a prominent issue in China’s economy.How to achieve industrial upgrading and promote the coordinated development of employment has become an important issue to be faced in this stage.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the employment effect of industrial structure upgrading in China.This paper first summarizes the general laws of the evolution of industrial structure and employment structure,and then establishes a theoretical model of the impact of industrial structure change on employment.From the two aspects of labor productivity and technological progress,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the influence of industrial structure change on employment.Then,by introducing government factors,the employment effect theoretical model of industrial structure upgrading under government intervention is constructed.The theoretical model analyzes the change of employment effect caused by the change of capital labor ratio under the government’s strategic choice.In the empirical study,first of all,the industrial proportion,employment proportion and national policy analysis are combined to investigate the evolution of China’s industrial structure and employment structure.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses the economic data of the whole country and provinces from 1990 to 2018 to construct a econometric analysis model of the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment under government intervention.Through the unit root test and co-integration test,the regression analysis results are obtained.The interaction between government intervention and industrial structure change promotes the increase of employment.Then,from the Angle of structural deviation degree and employment elasticity,this paper analyzes the coordination between industrial structure upgrading and employment,and points out that there is a large amount of surplus labor in the primary industry,the ability of the secondary industry to absorb employment needs to be enhanced,and the tertiary industry has become the leading industry to attract employment.Finally,this paper also divides China into four economic regions and compares the employment effect of industrial upgrading among regions.Through comparative analysis,it points out that the employment effect between regions is quite different.According to the conclusion of the employment effect analysis of China’s industrial structure upgrading,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions of promoting "seek improvement in stability" of industrial upgrading,promoting the coordinated development of industrial upgrading and employment structure,and building advantageous industries based on regional characteristics.