Research On "New Demographical Dividend" And The Development Path Of Domestic Demand In Big Countries

Since the reform and opening up,China has experienced a period of rapid economic growth lasting 42 years,in which high savings,high investment and high growth occurred at the same time and continued for decades of amazing achievements.The reason is that China has the comparative advantage of abundant labor resources,especially the rural reform starting from the household contract responsibility system,which allows the free flow of labor force and releases a large number of surplus labor in the traditional agricultural sector.Although there was a certain gap between the economic level at that time and the world average level,China’s economy and trade still had the comparative advantage of low production cost brought by the surplus of labor force,and the relatively scarce capital resources regulated by government policies made the economy grow steadily.However,in recent years,China’s population dependency ratio and the proportion and scale of working-age population that meet the social demand for sustainable production have reached the turning point in 2010 and 2013 respectively.Since 2004,the "shortage of migrant workers" in China’s southeast coastal areas and the Pearl River Delta region began to emerge,the problem of finding jobs has emerged,and wages have risen.The significant change in China’s population structure is considered by many scholars to be the loss of the traditional "demographic dividend".This leads to the increasing shortage of labor force,which leads to the rapid growth of wages.The marginal return of capital decreases significantly,and the cost of traditional job publishers with recruitment needs gradually increases,which has become an important restricting factor for the development of current job publishers with recruitment needs.The traditional "demographic dividend" is a quantitative and transfer-based economic development model that transfers from rural areas to cities and industries through a large number of cheap labor.Based on the economic benefits achieved through institutional and environmental development in the period of population opportunity window,that is,when the working-age population occupies a large proportion in the labor market,the economic subject will have sufficient supply of productivity and bring a large marginal return on capital.With the major changes in China’s population structure,China needs to seek a new development path.China can develop on the basis of the advantages of a big country--the "new demographic dividend" drives industrial upgrading through huge unactivated domestic demand,and then brings a virtuous internal economic cycle of consumption-quality combination with the cultivation of a large number of human resources.This paper derived the career search model DMP model and the inter generational overlapping model OLG model,and proved that under the current national conditions,through the new urbanization,industrial upgrading,domestic demand promotion and quality-oriented development model,China’s human resources with higher productivity can bring huge domestic demand development potential.The expansion of consumption quantity,upgrading of quality and upgrading of industry will help China to form a higher equilibrium point of supply and demand and form internal circulation of domestic economy.Under the current demographic structure,China can use the expansion of social consumption to reach a new balance of economic growth,which is the "new demographic dividend".Through the model deduction,it shows that China should develop the "new demographic dividend" and take the high quality domestic demand-oriented development path under the national conditions of big countries.