Analysis Of Human Mobility Based On Gravity Model ——Taking Sichuan Province As An Example

Sichuan Province has always been a large population province in China and a major labour export province,with a net outflow of population for a long time.However,with the implementation of major national policies such as the development of western China and the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle,Sichuan has seen a return of the outflow of people from outside the province and has attracted an inflow of people from outside the province and a significant increase in the number of people moving within the province.Against this backdrop,Sichuan has not only experienced economic development,but also changes in the movement and direction of population flows,making it crucial to analyse the current situation and impact of population movements in Sichuan.The economy and population movements are closely related,and this paper provides a specific analysis of the economy and population in Sichuan Province.At this stage,Sichuan’s economy is growing steadily,but unevenly within the province,with the city of Chengdu leading the rest of the province in economic development.The economic development has a direct impact on the population flow,with a mechanical increase of around 500,000 people per year in Chengdu and a mechanical decrease in the population of most of the remaining cities and towns,resulting in a large concentration of people in the province towards Chengdu.The siphoning effect of Chengdu on the provincial states and cities is evident,with the number of provincial inflow accounting for 78.1% of the total inflow and 25.5% of the resident population in Chengdu.In terms of population movement in Sichuan province,firstly,the K-means clustering method was used to classify the states and cities in terms of the source of population inflow and the destination of population outflow,and it was found that the states and cities in the same category were geographically close to each other."The Moran index was then used to analyse the direction of movement.Secondly,the factors affecting population movement were analysed.For cities and towns outside Chengdu,the factors affecting mechanical population growth were analysed using stepwise regression,and it was found that the number of mechanical population growth was inversely proportional to the urban registered unemployment rate.This paper determines the formula for calculating attractiveness based on the gravity model and the breakpoint formula,and determines the city size evaluation index system in terms of economic development level and social resources.The attractiveness of Chengdu to the remaining cities and towns was found to be the most attractive to Ziyang City,Meishan City and Ya’an City.Finally,a BP neural network was used to predict the proportion of inflows from each city to Chengdu.As the population of Sichuan Province is mainly concentrated in Chengdu,the correlation coefficient was used to analyse the impact of population concentration on the population structure.As an area of population agglomeration,Chengdu attracts a large number of highly educated people,and the abundant labour force increases the proportion of the population aged 15-59 in Chengdu,making the population ageing lower than in areas of net population outflow.At the same time,because the labour force is predominantly male,the sex ratio of the resident population in Chengdu is higher than that of the registered population,and the sex ratio of the unmarried population is higher.In addition,the population concentration has contributed to the urbanisation process in Chengdu.For the net outflow areas,the large loss of young adults has limited urban development and low urbanisation rates,and has increased the ageing of the population,increasing the burden on society and families in terms of old age.