| Optimization of population distribution plays an important role inreasonably guiding the orderly transfer of population, coordinating the relationshipbetween population, resources, environment and society as well as promoting regionalsustainable development. Based on taking geography and regional space theory ofdemography as the theoretical basis, with reference to a large number of existingresearch results, with taking County as statistical units, and by means of ArcGIS,GeoDA, Geograpically Weighted Regression and SPSS and other software, this paperreveals the population density, population proportion, geographic concentration ofpopulation, net floating population, population urbanization and other static spatialdistribution in Sichuan; using Lorenz curve, centralization index, populationdistribution center and spatial autocorrelation analysis method and selecting3timecross-sections of1990,2000and2010, this paper studies the spatial evolutioncharacteristics of population in Sichuan. Influencing factors of population spatialevolution are explored through combination of qualitative and quantitative methods offactor analysis, grey relational analysis, spatial regression analysis and geographicallyweighted regression analysis ect,and after systematizing resulting information, thefollowing conclusions are drawn out:(1) The spatial difference of population distribution in different counties withinthe province is very significant: The densely populated areas are located along the lineof Chao-tian District, Jiangyou, An county, Du Jiangyan, Dayi county, Yucheng District, Hanyan, Muchuan, Pingshan county and on the east, with a horseshoe-shapeddistribution; while population in the west has a relatively low quantity and density; thepopulation density decreases progressively from the core area of the basin to the north,west and south, and there is a relatively high population density in theChengdu-Deyang-Mianyang-Leshan economic zone and the municipal districts ofprefecture-level cities.(2) The net floating population in the province is huge. Both the county number ofnet outflow and the population size are much larger than the county number of netinflow and the population size. Net outflow regions are widely distributed in theprovince, while the net inflow regions mainly concentrate in Chengdu, the municipaldistricts of prefecture-level cities and some counties in western Sichuan.(3) The overall development level of urbanization has entered the middle stage.Absolute and relative differences in the spatial distribution are large, in which those inChengdu Plain and municipal districts of prefecture-level cities are higher and alongseveral main traffic arteries that go out of Sichuan.(4) The Lorenz curve in these three years greatly deviates from the balance linewith a centralization index of0.4419,0.4280and0.4138, respectively; they all show adecreasing trend, and the spatial structure of population distribution is characterized bybalanced development. The population centers are located in the east by south from thegeometric center and move from east by north to west by south. Their coordinates are(30.281°N,104.982°E),(30.283°N,104.931°E) and (30.267°N,104.829°E), with atotal linear distance of14,805.764m towards the west.(5) Global Moran’s I indexes are0.8384,0.8361and0.8260respectively,indicating that the population distribution has a strong aggregation, but there is also aweak decreasing trend; local autocorrelation analysis showed that the overall structureof population distribution is stable, and Sichuan Basin is the core area of populationdistribution while the mountain and plateau in western Sichuan is the sparselypopulated area; Chengdu Plain and adjacent areas, municipal districts of Zigong andLuzhou in southern Sichuan, as well as municipal districts of Nanchong and Guang’anin northeastern Sichuan are hot areas of population distribution, while the mountainand plateau in western Sichuan is the cold area of population distribution.(6) Topography, climate, mineral resources, historical basis, the level of economicdevelopment and transport have a significant impact on the population distribution; The economic strength,social consumption,quality of talent and industrial populationstructure of economic activity is an important influencing factor of populationdistribution;the average elevation of counties and natural population growth play anegative role in population distribution; the higher per capita GDP and the total retailsales of consumer goods can effectively promote population concentration.Based on these conclusions, this paper pertinently proposes the correspondingpolicy recommendations and makes a prospect for further research in the future. |
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