A Study Of The Energy Geopolitics In The Middle East In A Time Of Energy Transition

The world is now in the third round of energy transition from traditional fossil energy to low-carbon and clean energy,and the global energy supply and demand,technology and systems are all facing structural changes.As an important role in the international energy system and a hot spot in the energy geopolitical game,the global demand for energy transition will force the Middle East to promote transition.Therefore,this study focuses on the evolution of the energy geopolitics in the Middle East through the perspective of energy transition.Based on the theoretical foundation of energy geopolitics,this study attempts to enrich the connotation of energy security and to propose a theoretical framework with “energy security-energy power-energy policy” as the core,exploring the new changes brought by transition to the energy geopolitics in the Middle East at three different levels: national,regional and global level.Then,the specific reasons and logic behind the emergence of these phenomena are analyzed and a case study of the green energy transition in the UAE is selected for verification.This study argues that the energy transition will affect national perceptions of energy security,bring about increases or decreases in national energy power,and prompt countries to adjust their energy policies,and that the combination of these changes will bring about new changes to the existing hydrocarbon geopolitics in the Middle East.Specifically,at the national level,the transition will result in a shift of energy power among countries and the existing gap in energy power will continue to widen.At the regional level,the shift in the perception of energy interests of Middle Eastern countries is prompting them to rethink their national energy diplomacy.While the transition has brought opportunities for regional cooperation,it has also led to a rise in energy nationalism in some countries.The Russia-Ukraine conflict may also create instability in the energy geopolitics of the Middle East.From a global perspective,the US and Russia are the core extraterritorial powers involved in the energy geopolitical game in the Middle East.As the transition progresses,the energy geopolitics of the Middle East will gradually take on the characteristics of a plurality of extra-territorial game actors,and the strategic space for autonomous diplomacy of the Middle East powers will be enhanced.On this basis,this study presents a case study of the UAE and argues that the transition will make a difference in UAE’s national energy policy,and thus influence the Middle East from both regional and global levels.