Research On Impact Evaluation For Expressway Construction Project

Infrastructure construction plays a great role in the development of the national economy. Over the past 20 years, China’s transportation infrastructure has made rapid development. By the end of 2013, the total mileage of expressway exceeded 100,000 kilometers. Whether each expressway construction achieved the expected investment results, and to what extent it promoted social and economic development in the project area, to answer these questions it is imperative to carry out performance monitoring and impact evaluation for expressway projects.In theoretical analysis, based on project performance monitoring framework of multilateral development institutions, the process and steps of performance monitoring are discussed and the concept of the impact evaluation is defined. The study puts forward the principle and method to establish the indicator system of project performance monitoring and methods and steps in designing and selecting performance indicators. By analyzing the performance objectives of 66 expressway projects financed by the multilateral development institutions in China, the indicator system of impact evaluation for expressway is developed.To obtain data for the empirical research, the study carried out a performance monitoring in social, economic, and transportation development of the 7 counties along the Ningxia Tongxin to Yanchuanzi expressway, as well as these of the 1153 villages along the road. The performance monitoring was conducted throughout the total project life cycle.In the empirical research,(i) in order to score and weight evaluation indicators more objectively, the study proposed an endogenetic performance evaluation approach using DFS-SVM and Promethee II methods together. The approach is employed to assess performance of three sections of the Tongxi to Yanchuanzi expressway and determine the ranking;(ii) to overcome evaluation deviation due to overlook of spatial effect in traditional impact evaluation, the study built spatial lag model(SLM) and spatial error model(SEM) on highway investment performance to assess spatial spillovers effects of highway investment on regional growth. To build the model, a comprehensive development index of counties/districts benefited from a highway is synthesized through factor analysis. Then typical variables to measure performance of highway investment are selected. The spatial spillover effects of Tongxin to Yanchuanzi expressway on regional growth are then analyzed;(iii) to effectively overcome the lack of control group, the study builds ATE/ATT model for analysis of socioeconomic return of expressway construction. The study quantified the impact of Tongxin to Yanchuanzi expressway on socioeconomic development and transportation improvement at village level, by using ATE/ATT model and Match method together. The socioeconomic development at village level attributed to the expressway construction is quantified.The research studied the framework, methodologies, and analyzing models to carry out impact evaluation for an expressway project, and comprehensively assessed impact of construction of an expressway on social, economy and transportation development in a region, from the macro and micro, static and dynamic dimensions. The research provides a new approach and perspective for quantitative analysis of highway construction effects and provides practical guidance to the Asian Development Bank in using the results-based lending modality for infrastructure investment.