Study On The Optimal Allocation And The Scale Dynamic Simulation Of Urban Indemnificatory Housing In China

The housing security may protect low and middle- income residents through the distribution and redistribution to national income, and it will be an important part of the social security system. The housing security policy is not only the core content of housing policy, but also a critical component of urban social security policy. As the commercial housing prices had been rising too fast in China over the past decade, low-income people in cities and towns could not afford to buy houses and more and more people need to housing security. The state had enacted a series of housing security policies for sustained and stable development of society. Affordable housing and low-rent housing are effective methods to solve the housing difficulties of low-income urban families and the lowest income families. But a lot of problems have appeared during the process, which request us to re-consider the system of current urban housing security. We should establish one more scientific, reasonable, efficient and fair housing security system and operation mechanism according to China's urban social economic and housing development in the actual situation, which can help the low-income residents dwell better and speed up building the harmonious society.Based on the summary of previous theoretical and empirical research and the experience of foreign housing security policies, this study focuses on the following aspects:First, The scale of urban indemnificatory housing in china and its trend. At the present stage, growth of the rate of urban resident per capita income lags far behind the rising rate of housing price, and the housing gap between urban residents is a polarization of trends, and the groups need housing support shows an increasing trend. Beneficiaries are very limited. Pace of construction on indemnificatory housing can not meet demand. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and solve effectively the conflicts between the scale of urban indemnificatory housing and financial income, commercial housing market price, and to make the scale of indemnificatory housing maintain consistency with economic development and residents demand. Second, improve the supervision system. Indemnificatory housing for low and middle income class is of a benefit policy, but in order to benefit many rich people will take the opportunity to be false, there are still high-income earners driving "Buick", "Benz" looks at housing, supply object out of control, lower-middle class are not treated fairly. Therefore, scientific supervision systems need to improve. Last, increase satisfaction. The qualified person of indemnificatory housing often give up the purchase right, satisfaction level is not high, the Government should not only concern the overall supply of housing, but also to ensure that all social classes at a reasonable price level can obtain adequate housing and living environment.The main contents and innovations of this study are:(1) In the dissertation author studies the factors of affecting the scale of urban indemnificatory housing in china and established long-term equilibrium relationship and the regression model between its using co-integration regression and Granger causality theory, and identifies the main factors of affecting the scale of indemnificatory housing which include urban population, urban revenue, commercial housing prices and disposable income per capita, and establishes a systems dynamics model on the scale of indemnificatory housing using system dynamics theory and method. The author designs the growth rate of commercial housing prices and the proportion of revenue expenditure in social security for two control variables to simulation, and analyzes the trends of the scale of indemnificatory housing.(2) In the dissertation author sets up the game model among government, builder and the rich using the knowledge of game theory, and analyzes optimal solution. In order to meet the highest level of satisfaction in the allocation of indemnificatory housing to the qualified persons, author evaluates the properties of indemnificatory housing using fuzzy comprehensive evaluating method. Based on a comprehensive evaluating matrix of indemnificatory housing properties and a matrix of level of emphasis qualified person put on those indemnificatory housing properties, the author establishes a satisfaction objective 0-1 programming optimal model on allocation of indemnificatory housing, and analyzes an example using LINGO program. To some extent, it may improve the justice and rationality of urban housing allocation system, and proposes scientific methods for the implementation and monitoring of housing allocation system.(3) Based on the results of the analysis, In the dissertation author also puts forward some policy proposals from the dynamic adjustment of the appropriate level and service system of scientific management on indemnificatory housing in order to improve the housing security system and operating mechanism.