Research On Risk Evaluation And Balance To Maintain Of Transport Network Of Coal Logistics

With the resource integration and international strategic expansion of coal industry and based on the building of coal and coal chemical industry, the conversion of coal and energy. We now have a nervous trend of energy consumption, However, the structure which coal as the main energy consumption will keep no change in recently years. With the complex of the coal transportation network, poor logistics and transport of coal and system risk have become one of the bottlenecks of industrial restructuring and upgrading the transport. Hence, there is a significance to make a analysis and evaluation to the transport network of coal logistics and the research of balanced to maintain.According to this problem, we use complex system theory, complex network theory risk analysis and evaluation, optimization theory and fuzzy mathematics theory within the research of problem in controlling the risk of logistics and transport of coal. And we have made the risk and evaluation by modeling the risk index system of transport network of coal logistics, risk assessment model, and set up the model of balanced to maintain and the algorithm design based on the complex system theory of transport network of coal logistics, there is a empirical analysis is combined to the transport network of coal logistics of ShanXi province. And the research proposed the strategy of balanced to maintain of transport network of coal logistics. Following the research:(1) The research proposed the concept of the transport network of coal logistics for the first time based on analyzing the conception, scope and characteristics of it. And the framework, structure, type and layout and complex of the transport network of coal logistics system have been analyzed. And the paper defined the complex of factors and characteristics of the transport network of coal logistics.(2) The internal and external factors of the risk of transport network of coal logistics has been studied from the structure, transportation, system coordination, management policy, supply and demand imbalance, external environment and emergencies of the network. Then we modeled the evaluation system which can reflect the risk of the network based on network survivability, network availability, accessibility, fitness and carrying capacity.(3)We made the risk assessment of transport network of coal logistics based on fuzzy risk assessment model of maximum entropy, set pair analysis and projection pursuit of assessment model. And we collected the result of the three reassessments to solve the incompatibility of the result based on the combination of multiple criteria decision-making evaluation. In order to reflect the subjective evaluation and objective to achieve a comprehensive measure which defined weight coefficient of the risk assessment by using AHP, corrected the weight coefficient. Then the paper proposed the effectiveness and feasibility of the measure and model risk assessment through the example of the transport network of coal logistics in ShanXi province.(4) The transport network of coal logistics has been analyzed about equilibrium level of system from four respects such as network topology, infrastructure, operations and business to protect the main. And researching the balance to maintain of network systematic based on complex network theory and methods, especially the theory research on balanced features and stability of the network. It proposed alternative method that the backbone network of logistics and transport network of the coal hub nodes and hub nodes linked, then the paper improved the ways to keep the network equilibrium and stability. At last, the example of logistics and transport network of ShanXi province coal validated the method is effective and feasible.(5) The paper focused on the Planning and recycling, operation, information sharing and collaborative relationship management of the net and analyzed the Maintaining a balanced strategy based on the paper's main theory and research result. And strategic guidance to be proposed can keep network balance and stably.The research is very useful in analyzing and reducing the risk of transport network of coal logistics, enhancing the reliability and stability of the network in operation. It proposed the basis of security strategy development and safe operation for the logistics and the transport network of coal. And there is significance for construe the modern logistics system and advance the market competitiveness, economic and social benefits.