Research On The “Scenario-Response” Preparedness Construction Of The Social Security Emergency In The College And University

The college and university is an important part of the whole social crisis management system, as a result, the emergency management plays a crucial role in modern university governance. In recent years, frequent occurrence of social security emergencies in the college and university, with unpredictable, disposal of pressing,serious hazard and extensive impact (randomness, discreteness and the low probability), has a negative effect on the normal teaching and living order as well as the safety of the teaching staff and students even stability of the society. It has attracted more and more attention from administrators and scholars how to effectively deal with social security emergencies in colleges and universities.Based on the social security emergencies in the college and university as the research object, using the scenario-response theory, this research constructs the emergency preparedness system. With systematical carding of the research status,this research scientifically defines the connotation of the social security emergency in the college and university, analyzes its characteristic, builds up the overall theoretical model, the recognition and extraction of scenario elements, the scenario evolution, the emergency preparedness four theoretical models with application of scenario theory, the AHP method, entropy method, factor- the principal component analysis for constructing the social security emergency key factors identification and extraction model; through the system dynamics method to build the social security emergency evolution model, then based on the multiple college social security incidents for retrospective case study to build the basic structure of social security emergency preparedness system and put forward proposals for colleges and universities.As to the innovation of this research: firstly, in the perspective of "Scenario",putting forward the social security emergency preparedness system theory model and research train, and that disaster, hazard-affected body, the disaster relief as the main body, building the "Scenario-Response" social security emergency preparedness system of the college and university, and the strategies; secondly, the key elements extraction, with the use of hazard-affected body-hazard-affected body-the disaster model, building the key scenario factor extraction model, through which finding out concentrated key factors; thirdly, innovative model of evolution viewing, based on the scenario theory, in-depth analysis to the social security inner mechanism of the evolution of emergency, evolution paths of simulation for an certain example with dynamics method applied in building the evolution model. The results of this research provide effective guidance and reference to "Scenario-Response" social security in the college and university.