Research On The Coordinated Development Of Industrial Structure And Employment Etructure In Xinjiang

"Changing the mode of development,optimizing the economic structure and transforming the driving force of growth" is not only the only choice for China to maintain sustainable and stable economic development,but also the only way to seek new economic power in the face of the new normal economy.The report of the Nineteenth National Congress pointed out that China's economy has changed from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development,and is now in the critical period of upgrading the industrial structure.We must adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line,and focus on accelerating the construction of the industrial system of coordinated development of real economy and human resources.Since the reform and opening up,Xinjiang's industrial structure and employment structure have been undergoing structural adjustment and optimization and upgrading,but there is a large structural deviation between the industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang.The development of national economy requires that its industrial structure and employment structure must be adapted and matched each other.Therefore,it is particularly important to measure and determine the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure,the degree of deviation between tertiary industrial structure and employment structure and its influencing factors in order to perfect the theoretical system of industrial structure research in Xinjiang,promote the optimization of employment structure and the coordinated upgrading of industrial structure in Xinjiang.Around these problems,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang by using the research systems and methods of industrial economics and regional economics,and combining with the general model of labor transfer in the economic structure of the Second Houses of Developing Countries.This paper first outlines the evolution process and current situation of Xinjiang's industrial structure and employment structure.Secondly,it studies the coordination of Xinjiang's industrial structure and employment structure by using structural deviation,coordination coefficient,lag time,convergence speed and other indicators,so as to accurately understand and grasp the degree of coordination in the process of their evolution.Afterwards,the partial least squares path analysis model was established to search for the influencing factors of unbalanced industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang.Based on the model of GM(1,1)and BP artificial neural network,this paper predicts the development trend of Xinjiang's industrial structure and employment structure.Finally,it puts forward the Countermeasures of coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure,and puts forward corresponding safeguard measures.The main conclusions are as follows:First,in terms of the correlation between industry and employment,there is a significant correlation between the proportion of output value and employment of the primary industry and the tertiary industry in Xinjiang,while the correlation between the proportion of output value and employment of the secondary industry is relatively weak,that is,the main influence of the "inhalation effect" produced by the structural adjustment of the tertiary industry.The employment structure of its own industry and primary industry.Most of the surplus labor force in the primary industry is absorbed by the tertiary industry,and the transfer to the secondary industry is relatively small.Employment elasticity analysis shows that the absolute value of employment elasticity of the first industry is relatively small,and the change of output value has a relatively small impact on employment;the employment elasticity of the second industry is generally larger than that of the first industry,but the overall fluctuation is relatively large,and the change of its internal structure shows the performance of the traditional labor force.Different degrees of "crowding out" effect;employment elasticity of the tertiary industry fluctuates slightly,but presents an obvious upward trend.The calculation results of comparative labor productivity and difference index of three industries show that the comparative labor productivity of different industries in Xinjiang varies greatly,the transfer of labor force between industries is slow,and there is a large number of surplus labor force in the primary industry,resulting in the reduction of comparative labor productivity,seriously affecting the rapid economic development and hindering the tertiary production.The structure of the industry has been adjusted smoothly,and the second industry has a relatively high labor productivity,and has continued for a long time.In terms of the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure,the absolute value of the deviation degree of the tertiary industry structure is relatively low and tends to zero,the industry and employment gradually tend to be balanced,and the relatively insufficient development of the tertiary industry leads to the gradual narrowing of the absorbing space of employment,revealing the particularity of the deviation between the industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang.Secondly,in terms of the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang,the coordination between the employment structure and industrial structure in Xinjiang is gradually strengthened;and the analysis of regional differences shows that the development of industrial structure and employment structure is not balanced in the three major regions of North-South and East Xinjiang and in the prefectures and cities of various regions,showing a significant decline in the northern,Eastern and southern regions in turn.Low gradient distribution pattern.Moreover,when the lag period of employment structure is 5,the grey absolute correlation degree between the system behavior sequence of the Moore structure value of employment structure and the benchmark characteristic sequence of the Moore structure value of industrial structure is the greatest,that is,the influence of the adjustment of industrial structure in Xinjiang is transmitted to the employment structure after 5 years.Moreover,through the measurement and analysis of the convergence rate of employment structure,the results show that the distance between the employment structure of Xinjiang's tertiary industry and the ideal employment structure is narrowing year by year from 1978 to 2016,with an average convergence rate of 9%.However,the convergence rate of employment structure shows obvious cyclical fluctuations,and the stability of convergence rate is relatively weak,which is obviously related to the stability of industrial policy,the change of economic environment and the lag of labor transfer in Xinjiang since the reform and opening up.Thirdly,in terms of the factors influencing the imbalance of industrial structure and employment structure,the results of the partial minimum two-path model show that: firstly,over-exploitation of resources,unreasonable development of high-energy-consuming industries,aggravation of environmental pollution,scientific and technological innovation and transformation,unreasonable path of industrialization,relatively low quality of labor force and National characteristics are the main factors that lead to the imbalance of industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang.Secondly,the level of urbanization,the quality of labor force and the degree of structural deviation show a reverse relationship,which can improve the imbalance of industrial structure and employment structure in Xinjiang.The importance of each factor is different.The level of urbanization,the quality of labor force and the national characteristics are more important than other factors,which is attributed to the conservative view of labor force,the low quality of labor force and the low level of regional urbanization.Fourth,in the prediction of the trend of industrial structure and employment structure.Firstly,with the continuous improvement of the income level,the proportion of output value and employment in the primary industry will continue to decline,while the proportion of output value and employment in the secondary and tertiary industries will keep rising steadily,the industrial structure will continue to maintain the "three,two,one" development pattern,and the employment structure will remain stable.Second,in terms of industrial structure,per capita GDP in the 40,000-45,000 economic conditions,Xinjiang's industrial structure has basically realized the transformation to the "three,two,one" development pattern,and with the actual level of Xinjiang's industrial structure since 2016 to the same;in terms of employment structure,when per capita GDP is 45,000-50,000 At 000 yuan,the employment structure can basically realize the development pattern of "three and one or two".When the per capita GDP breaks through 100000 yuan,the employment structure of Xinjiang can basically realize the "three,two,one" development pattern;third,by comparing the economic level conditions of the transformation of industrial structure and employment structure,we can see that the transformation of employment structure pattern in Xinjiang lags far behind the industrial structure under the same economic level.