| Since the reform and opening up,the world’s largest vocational education system has been established through the reform of distribution,diversion,stratification and classification.According to statistics released by the Ministry of Education,there are11,501 vocational colleges in China,including 1,423 vocational colleges and 10,078 secondary vocational schools,offering more than 1,200 specialties and more than100,000 specialized points.The number of students in vocational education reached37.531 million,21.716 million in higher vocational education,and 15.765 million in secondary vocational education.In the face of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the increase of the demand for high-quality technical talents due to the advanced industrial foundation,higher vocational education is also faced with the problem of mismatch in the educational structure,talent training structure and professional structure while increasing the supply through enrollment expansion.On the one hand,the number of vocational college graduates is increasing,on the other hand,the structural contradiction of graduates’ employment is becoming more and more serious.While biased technological progress represented by the new generation of information technology increases the demand for highly skilled talents,the "blow wind effect" formed by it also leads to a decrease in the demand for middle-skilled workers and an increase in low-skilled workers,exacerbating the polarization of the employment market.Reflected in the structure of higher vocational education,it is the problem that higher vocational education is oversupplied in low-end and traditional industries,and under supplied in modern industries,especially advanced manufacturing and modern service industries.In view of this,this paper systematically combs the evolution law of demand-side industrial structure from the perspective of supply-demand contradiction.Based on the industrial structure of developed economies in the world,this paper predicts the transformation and upgrading path of China’s industrial structure,which is still in the primary stage of industrial structure modernization,and tries to calculate the industrial added value and employment ratio of three industries and major industries in 2030,2035,2040 and 2050.The upgrading and transformation of industrial structure will inevitably lead to the change of employment structure.For the adaptation and coordination of industrial structure and employment structure,the research mainly calculates the similarity coefficient and structural deviation degree of industrial structure.It is believed that the current industrial structure is generally coordinated with the employment structure,but there are many problems in the industrial structure.A large number of workers in the primary industry need to be transferred.The secondary industry and tertiary industry have absorbed most of the new workers,but the industrial development is still at a low stage.If the transformation and upgrading cannot be carried out continuously,their absorption effect on labor employment will be weakened.As the main employment group of the secondary and tertiary industries,how does industrial transformation and upgrading affect the employment of college graduates,especially vocational college graduates?The study further analyzes the impact of industrial transformation and upgrading on the industrial distribution,industrial distribution and regional distribution of vocational college graduates’ employment.Demand determines supply,especially for employment-oriented higher vocational education.How is the supply of higher vocational education in talent training? This paper studies the adjustment and change of higher vocational education in levels,majors,colleges and regional structures since the expansion of higher education in 1999.From the perspective of supply and demand matching,it is pointed out that there are four major contradictions in the development of higher vocational education structure in China,which are mainly manifested in the hierarchical structural contradictions of "heavy bottom","collapse in the middle" and "rejection at the top",and the contradictions of "strong science and weak culture","three more than three less" and "three higher and three lower".There are structural contradictions in colleges and universities,such as "supporting the strong and supporting the excellent","stability and insufficiency","public strength and people weakness",and regional structural contradictions,such as "convergence of the same position","more east and less west",and "employment in different places".How to resolve the structural contradiction between supply and demand,the study also tries to put forward countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the structure of higher vocational education from four aspects,including the hierarchical structure,"improving quality and efficiency" higher vocational specialty education,"unblocking point" higher vocational undergraduate education,and "dislocation development" professional degree postgraduate education.In terms of major structure,"integrated" design majors link up,"digital" transformation of traditional majors,"characteristic" development of dominant majors.In terms of college structure,"supporting the weak and supporting the excellent" should be adopted to develop vocational colleges in a balanced way,"advancing while maintaining stability" should be actively developed,and "quantity to quality" should be coordinated and guided by private vocational colleges.In terms of regional structure,the higher vocational education in the east,the higher vocational education in the middle and the higher vocational education in the west should be "improved and improved".High quality vocational education must be structurally optimized.Only by actively connecting with the change of talent demand in the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,can higher vocational education enable graduates to "get a good job" and solve the structural contradiction of higher vocational graduates’ employment. |
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