Predictive Analysis Of Labor Supply And Demand Under The New Situation And Adjustments Of Labor Policy In Jiangxi Province

With the economy system revelations, increase of rural labor force and Financial Crisis, our country is faced with a tough job market. Labor oversupply and the employment contradiction of migrant workers, college students and disadvantaged groups add to the severe problem. As an agricultural province, Jiangxi is rich in surplus labor force and the contradiction of labor oversupply has been there for a long time;in the meantime, with the economy society's further development of Jiangxi province, the contradiction has manifested itself in employment structure. Although Jiangxi economy has experienced economic recovery after the Financial Crisis, it is not changed that the employment problem deteriorates day by day. As a result, what effective and practicable measures to take so as to solve the employment problem is a key point for Jiangxi economy society to evolve further.To solve the problem, based on the development reality of economy society during post-crisis era, this article uses theory of economic growth, theory of unemployment and theory of labor force transfer in defining the new situation. It discusses the main problems of employment in Jiangxi as well as the current situation under the new situation; According to relevant statistical data, it forecasts the labor supply and demand during the Twelfth Five-year Plan from the perspective of quantification; It analyses and concludes the employment policy evolution in Jiangxi and gives advice and suggestions in how to improve the employment policy under the new situation to the point. The conclusions are as follows:(1) The current employment situation of Jiangxi is:The unemployment is more and more and the rate of unemploymentrate of unemploymentrate of unemployment assumes the notable uptrend; the participation of labor and industrial structure level is low; labor employment pressure is high and industrial structure is not matched with employment structure. The five basic problems for Jiangxi employment are:①The overall quality of laborers is low, which can not match the process of industrialization;②Financial Crisis aggravates the employment situation, which puts heavier pressure on disadvantaged groups;③Jiangxi is in the demographic dividend period. It will help enhance economy effect if employment can be solved, or else it may become dependency burden;④The economic gapeconomic gap between Jiangxi and the developed coastal areas results in the outflow of excellent labor and hinders the economy development of Jiangxi;⑤The lag of urbanization in Jiangxi constrains the adjustment of industrial structure and employment structure in the process of industrialization, which makes the structural unemployment in Jiangxi more serious(2) Research on labor supply predicting in by means of the gray system predicative method shows that, there will be rapid growth trend in Jiangxi's labor supply from 35740000 in 2011 to 38770000 in 2015. predicting getting out from PDL model demonstrates the overall labor demand in Jiangxi during the Twelfth Five-year Plan will increase at a low speed from 24735000 in 2011 to 25587000 in2015.We can see that the contradiction between labor supply and demand during the Twelfth Five-year Plan is a serious problem, and employment in a big problem.(3) Ever since the reform and opening, Research on the evolution indicates that Jiangxi has changed from rural employment and centralized labor allocation to diverse employment policy through market-orientation,and employment policy is focused on labor oversupply since the Tenth Five-year Plan. From the analysis of Jiangxi's current situation and problems of employment under the new situation, the analysis of labor supply and demand forecasting, this article put forward employment policies from five aspects:adjusting industrial structure and increasing jobs; controlling population growth and cutting down labor supply; building effective system for labor training and promoting labor quality and skills; establishing regional labor transfer mechanism and enforcing labor transfer strategy; perfecting labor market system and strengthen labor market accommodation, population growthpopulation.